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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 240647 AAA AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1045 PM PST Sun Feb 23 2020

Synopsis... Dry weather. A slight cool down today then a return to well above normal temperatures this week.


.Discussion... The Evening Update: Nly gradients beginning to increase this evening as the dry cold front moves over Norcal. MFR-RDD gradient has increased to 6+ mbs near its max value for this modest Nly wind event. Behind the front, surface high pressure will build across ORE and into NV increasing Nly and Ely pressure gradients tonight and through Tue morning. A modest Nly barrier jet is forecast to develop on the W side of the Sac Vly and into the Golden Gate gap beginning Mon morning thru Tue morning. Gusts during this time are forecast to reach 25-30 kts on the W side of the Vly. Late Mon nite and Tue morning, the Ely gradients will support a katabatic wind down the W side of the Sierra affecting the SW-NE oriented canyons, i.e. Jarbo Gap. Doubling the 925 mbs winds gives an estimate of a peak gust up to 40 kts in the wind favored areas. A very warm stretch of wx is forecast this week (10-20 deg above average) with possible record max temps Thu in the Nrn Sac Vly and Wed-Fri in the Srn Sac and Nrn SJ Valleys. Addendum: With the developing Nly flow down the W side of the Sac Vly any low clouds are forecast by the HREF to occur on the E side of the Nrn San Joaquin Vly Mon morning. JHM .Previous Discussion... Cooler temperatures today with temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees lower than yesterdays values at 2 pm. The cooler temperatures will be short lived as high pressure rebuilds over the region Monday through Wednesday. This will bring a warming trend each day through Wednesday with temperatures warming 10 to 15 degrees above normal each day. Models are indicating some possible low clouds forming in the San Joaquin Valley late tonight and early morning. Any that form should clear fairly early in the morning as the northerly winds increase and drier air moves into the region. Northerly flow will develop in the valley and primarily easterly flow for the Sierra Nevada starting tonight. Winds do not look to be strong each day but some local gusty winds Monday night for some of the favored places in the Sierra Nevada will be possible. Weaker gradients across the Sierra Nevada Tuesday night will bring the return of lighter winds.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION

(Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

... Dry and mild conditions will continue late this week under upper level ridging. Highs will be around 10 to 20 degrees above average for late February, with Valley temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. There are signs that the ridge may break down next weekend as a system drops south from the Gulf of Alaska into the region. Therefore, cooling will be possible by next weekend, with at least some light precipitation on Sunday. Best chances appear to be over the mountains.








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