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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 150533 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1033 PM PDT Mon Jun 14 2021

SYNOPSIS...
Warming trend this week with widespread triple digit heat expected by mid-week across the Valley continuing into the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to be upwards of 15 to 20 degrees above average for this time of year across much of interior Northern California. Record high temperatures possible Thursday and Friday with high to very high heat risk expected.


.DISCUSSION

... The Evening Update: Dry subsiding air spreading into Norcal this evening in the wake of short wave energy moving into ORE/NV. Next short wave near 40N/130W will be passing farther N into/across ORE with rising 5H heights over Norcal on Tue. This will allow for a slight/modest uptick in temps (except for +10 at KSUU) due to weaker onshore gradients as the short wave passes to our N. Tue will be the last "near normal" temp day for the rest of the week in Norcal as the 4-Corners High brings a "heat wave" to Norcal with record- breaking-beastly temps Thu/Fri. Some moderation over the weekend is expected although triple digit heat will continue into Sat in the Valley, then just the Nrn Sac Vly on Sun. JHM .Previous Discussion... A weak AR that brought precipitation to far northwestern California the last few days is currently bringing some scattered showers to the higher terrain of western Shasta County as of this afternoon. More scattered showers are possible this evening as the low starts to shift out of our region. Otherwise, generally clear skies and seasonable temperatures are being observed across Northern California. While this low is moving out of the region, high pressure is building out of the desert southwest. This has lead to tightening pressure gradients over Northern California. Subsequently, breezy onshore flow through interior Northern California is being observed today. Gusts 20 to 30 mph are expected to continue into this evening. By Wednesday breezy northerly flow though the Valley is expected in response to the building high pressure. This will also be accompanied with very dry conditions and could lead to some elevated fire weather concerns in the Valley. This flow pattern will also inhibit the influence of cooling from the Delta to the region with warm overnight lows expected by thursday morning. Temperatures associated with this large scale high pressure building into the region are anomalously high as indicated by shift of tails. Cluster analysis is also indicating large confidence in this dangerous heatwave impacting our region. Widespread triple digit high temperatures are forecast across the Valley by Wednesday and is expected to continue for several days. Forecast highs for the Valley soar to 105 to 112 with some areas possibly reaching 113 Thursday and Friday. Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to 70s are also forecast in the Valley with some areas in the thermal belts of the foothills only cooling into the low 80s. Record high temperatures are possible for several locations both Thursday and Friday. This type of heat risk is dangerous to the entire population. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued from 11 am Thursday through 9 pm Saturday. Now is the time to prepare. SLL


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION

(Friday THROUGH Monday)... Very hot weather continues Friday and Saturday with some mild relief by Sunday into Monday. The delta breeze looks to start to pick up a little bit each day starting Thursday. This could mean delta influenced areas could be slightly cooler by a few degrees on Friday compared to Thursday. However, relief will be minimal as the Delta Breeze is forecast to remain relatively weak. Elsewhere, Friday looks to be the slightly warmer day for the Northern Sacramento Valley and areas further from the Delta. Saturday will be a few degrees lower, however will continue to be warm with widespread triple digit expected. This weekend models start to diverge somewhat but, in general a very gradual cooling trend is expected into next week. Although warm, above average temperatures are expected to continue throughout the extended forecast period as the Eastern Pacific Ridge starts to become the dominant synoptic feature. SLL








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