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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 102143 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
243 PM PDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS...
Cooling trend expected tonight into Tuesday, with below normal high temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible over Sierra Nevada through Tuesday. Near normal temperatures midweek, then warming up again by next weekend.


.DISCUSSION

... Current temperatures are running slightly hotter across the northern Sacramento Valley this afternoon. Redding Airport hit 110 yesterday, and has been running 3 degrees warmer for much of today. This could see Redding with a high close to the record of 15, set in 1978. The Delta Breeze has spread a little cooling into the Delta region today (1 to 4 degrees), and this will strengthen overnight bringing and more significant cooling into the Sacramento and Stockton areas. Weak trough develops along the West Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, pushing most of the late day thunderstorm activity back well to the east of the forecast area by Wednesday. Some lingering isolated storms are possible over the Sierra Crest, mainly south of I-80. The trough will also result in strengthening onshore flow by this evening which will bring cooler temperatures (back to around average for this time of years for a couple of days. Trough forecast to weaken by Thursday leading to slight warming as onshore flow slackens.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION

(Friday THROUGH Monday)... To conclude the work week, a broad elongated trough off the California coast is expected to retrograde toward the west in time. Ensembles show the longstanding ridge over the Four Corners will translate toward the southwestern U.S. The resultant rise in mid/upper-level heights should bring another bout of heat to the region over the weekend and to start the following week. Valley temperatures are likely to return to the triple digits with ensembles showing the potential for 100 to 105 degree readings over the southern Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys. Daily highs will likely be at least 10 degrees above climatology over these regions given the northward expansion of the ridge. Dry weather is expected during the extended period. ~BRO








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