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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 222134 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
234 PM PDT Sun May 22 2022

Synopsis... Periods of breezy north winds and low humidity will bring critical fire weather conditions through mid-week, especially Monday and Tuesday. Moderate heat risk through the middle of this week, with temperatures peaking Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and onshore winds expected late week as a system passes to the north.


.Discussion... Locally breezy northerly winds up to 20-25 mph are being observed across portions of the Sacramento Valley this afternoon as a shortwave moves into the Great Basin. With humidity values from the single digits to the teens across the Valley this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions continue. Ensembles show offshore winds strengthening Monday into Tuesday as another system drops into the Great Basin. This wind event is not expected to be as strong as our last one. However, the combination of breezy northerly winds and very low humidity will likely lead to critical fire weather conditions. The MFR-SAC gradient could peak at around 10-13 mbs; strongest winds from early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. This may lead to northerly gusts up to 35 mph in portions of the Valley and Coastal Range foothills. Daytime humidity values will remain low in the single digits to teens. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday and Tuesday. Lighter winds are expected on Wednesday, becoming onshore Wednesday evening. Ensemble guidance advertises a strengthening ridge that will continue to promote hot temperatures across interior NorCal through mid-week. Valley temperatures may reach into the triple digits both Tuesday and Wednesday, with the hottest temperatures on Wednesday as ridging moves overhead. Overnight lows Tuesday into Wednesday may only cool into the upper 60s to mid 70s. The heat risk will run in the moderate category across the Valley through mid-week with some locally high heat risk. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the Valley from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Take precautions to prevent heat-related illnesses. In addition, some Valley locations could tie or break their high temperature records for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Here are some record temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday: Tue (May 24) Wed (May 25) Redding..........102 (1982) 103 (1982) Red Bluff........105 (1943) 105 (1982) Downtown Sac.....100 (2001) 100 (2020 & 1951) Sac Exec.........100 (1982) 100 (1951) Stockton.........104 (1982) 102 (1979)


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION

(Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

... Slightly better agreement in clusters for the timing of a trough developing offshore on Thursday. This will bring cooler temperatures, onshore flow, and higher humidity to the area on Thursday continuing into late Friday. Thursday temperatures will be roughly 8-12 degrees cooler than those hot temperatures expected the day before, with a few more degrees of cooling expected on Friday. A few showers are possible with this passing system, mainly in far northern California. This system continues east with EPAC high pressure building just offshore through the weekend.








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