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Northern CA Forecast Discussion

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
245 AM PDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms through at least mid week. Sunday storms will be most numerous possibly into many valley locations. Temperatures will stay remain below normal then start increasing to near to slightly above normal by end of next week.


... Partly to mostly cloudy skies are spreading across the region early this morning as the offshore closed low continues to drift to the southeast toward the central California coast. Radar shows some light showers east of the Sierra crest near Lake Tahoe moving slowly to the northwest. Onshore surface pressure gradient is beginning to increase with winds gusting to around 30 mph currently at Travis AFB. Profiler data show the marine layer around 2.5-3k ft deep, so perhaps some stratus will develop in the Sacramento region early this morning, but it`s not certain. Current temperatures are mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s in the mountains, and in the 50s to mid 60s across the Central Valley (slightly cooler in the valley and slightly warmer in the mountains compared to 24 hours ago). Active convective weather pattern returns this weekend into early next week with more numerous showers and thunderstorms expected as the closed low camps out near the central California coast with east to southeast flow developing over NorCal. Most of the storms will be over higher terrain, but a few may drift into the northern Sacramento Valley by this evening. Stronger easterly flow is forecast on Sunday which will lead to a better chance for storms moving down into the Central Valley by Sunday evening and overnight. Moisture increases this weekend with around 1-1.25 inch TPW forecast by Sunday. Heavy rain and hail are the primary threats with stronger storms in the mountains, and HREF probability of exceeding 1 inch/hr rates is only around 20-30 percent today across the northern Sierra. Similar to earlier in the week and last weekend, decent storm motion should limit the overall flash flood threat. Unsettled weather will continue early next week, but the shower/thunderstorm threat is forecast to retreat to mainly the Sierra and Cascades by Tuesday as the low shifts east. Temperatures will remain below average.


(Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)... Model ensembles and clusters continue to show an upper low/shortwave trough off the Southern California Coast mid to late week. This leaves area under a weak upper trough with westerly flow. Temperatures trend warmer from mid to late week, with near normal highs Wednesday and Thursday and then above normal for the weekend. NBM shows highs in the mid to upper 80s with some lower 90s north Sacramento Valley by Friday. The weekend could see temperatures in the low to mid 90s, but uncertainty in the exact pattern makes the spread in temperatures still fairly wide. There is the slight potential for mountain thunderstorms with the weak westerly flow and the weak upper trough around...but should be mainly south of I-80 along the Sierra Crest.

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