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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 012132 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
232 PM PDT Sun Aug 1 2021

SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with near-normal temperatures expected through the week with dry conditions prevailing. Breezy onshore winds at times.


.DISCUSSION

... The area remains sandwiched between an eastern Pacific trough and ridging centered over the 4-Corners area. Temperatures started a few degrees cooler this morning, but are currently about the same as this time yesterday. Highs this afternoon should be pretty typical for the start of August. For the Valley, this means around 100 for the northern Sacramento Valley and mid to upper 90s elsewhere in the Valley, mid 80s to low 90s in the Delta and foothills. Skies have been mostly clear except over the Sierra and southern Cascades, where some afternoon cumulus have developed. So far convection has remained east of the crest as expected. Thunderstorm and show activity should continue to track eastward away from the area this evening. This looks like the end of the monsoonal thunderstorm threat for a while, with dry weather even for the mountains through the rest of this week. Southwest flow aloft over the area will continue persistent onshore flow for much of the forecast period with occasional breezy conditions developing in the afternoons and evenings around the Delta and portions of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. This will bring general near-normal temperatures this week. Highest temperatures are expected on Tuesday, peaking at around 104 over the northern Sacramento Valley, 99 for the southern Sacramento Valley. Some cooling is expected for mid week as the Pacific trough moves onshore Wednesday. The trough moving onshore will bring some breezy onshore winds. This could bring some fire weather concerns, though lowest humidity levels are expected earlier, on Tuesday. The onshore flow will bring some increasing humidity when winds are breeziest, late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds could gust to 20 to 30 mph over ridges. W


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION

(Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

... Most ensembles and cluster solutions bring the trough along the 130W meridian onshore near the California-Oregon border on Thursday. This solution would bring continued onshore flow to the region, near-normal temperatures, and dry conditions into next weekend.








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