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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 012129 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
229 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2020

SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures around seasonal averages this week, with a quiet, dry pattern continuing.


.DISCUSSION

... Mid-level water vapor imagery across the western U.S. shows a positively-tilted trough over the Pacific Northwest while ridging remains prominent well off the coast. The resultant northwesterly flow has kept tranquil weather in place with sunny skies over most locations. Some orographically induced fair weather cumulus fields are noted in the 0.64 micron visible satellite channel. Otherwise, much like yesterday, early afternoon temperatures across the Valley and Delta have reached the upper 80s to low 90s. Given additional diurnal heating, another 3 to 5 degrees can be tacked on to these temperatures this afternoon. This should keep readings with a degree or two of seasonal averages for early July. For Thursday and Friday, an area of low pressure moving toward the Washington coastline will turn flow to a more westerly direction. 1000-500 mb thicknesses are forecast to lower by a few dm as this subtle pattern shift commences. The greater Delta influence will lower temperatures to slightly below average which is in the mid 80s around the Delta and low 90s across the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. In terms of expected winds, 20 to 30 mph southwesterly gusts will be likely around the Delta with 10 to 15 mph southerly winds being more commonplace over Valley locations. By the start of the holiday weekend, temperatures are forecast to come back up a bit as heights build in response to a Four Corners ridge. However, compared to previous model guidance over the last few days, forecast numbers have come down a bit. This is in due to the Pacific Northwest trough sagging southward to the Oregon/California border. Expected Valley highs will be in the mid to upper 90s which is approximately 2 to 4 degrees above climatology. ~BRO


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION

(Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)... For Sunday and heading into next week, only subtle changes are likely in the large-scale pattern. Global ensemble means maintain a positively-tilted trough just offshore of the Pacific Northwest while the Four Corners ridge expands toward Arizona. Ultimately expecting Valley temperatures to stay in the mid to upper 90s through Monday before a slight cooling trend ensues thereafter. If anything, this may take about 3 to 5 degrees off daily temperatures. The overall dry pattern will continue into next week. ~BRO








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