U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 140653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough and belt of south-southwesterly flow aloft will
advance east-northeastward across the Southwest on Friday. A surface
low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly
surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a
deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated
to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The
primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area
continues to be marginal surface winds (15-20 mph). Across northern
Arizona on the fringe of better moisture located across the Four
Corners into western New Mexico, isolated dry thunderstorms will be
possible along the Mogollon Rim.
Enhanced westerly flow aloft will move into the base of a
mid-level trough across the Northwest Friday afternoon. The
associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor
locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and
eastern WA/northeastern OR where fuels have dried sufficiently to
support fire spread. As a result, elevated conditions are expected
for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in
northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds
are expected.
..Thornton.. 06/14/2024
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 140654
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will remain in place across the western US on
Saturday with a belt of enhanced west to southwesterly flow moving
across the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. This will bring
potential for breezy/dry downslope flow to overspread dry fuels in
the lee of the Cascades across western Washington/northern Oregon
within the Columbia Basin. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to
15-25 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Locally
Critical fire weather concerns will be possible, though Critical
winds appear too localized to include any areas at this time.
Ahead of the western US trough, a surface trough across southern
Nevada into western Arizona will bring breezy/dry conditions across
southern Nevada into southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona,
where relative humidity reductions into the teens to single digit
will overlap sustained southwesterly flow around 10-15 mph. This
warrants inclusion of an Elevated delineation as fuels are
critically dry across this region.
..Thornton.. 06/14/2024
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132152
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist over the northwestern
quadrant of the CONUS through late next week as an upper ridge
dominates the central and eastern CONUS. Several days of
wildfire-spread potential are evident over the Interior West as
multiple mid-level troughs pivot around the broad cyclonic flow
aloft. The first in a series of mid-level troughs will overspread
the Pacific Northwest on Day 3 (Saturday), with dry and windy
conditions overspreading drying fuels to the lee of the Cascades,
and farther south across southern portions of the Great Basin. By
Days 4-5 (Sunday and Monday), a broader and more amplified mid-level
trough will traverse the Interior West, supporting dry and windy
conditions atop receptive fuels from portions of the California
Valley area, to the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. The best
chance for Critically dry and windy conditions atop receptive fuels
will be over southern Utah into much of northern and central Arizona
and far western New Mexico, where 70 percent Critical probabilities
have been added. Thereafter, the mid-level trough will depart the
region. Dry conditions will persist, but questions remain regarding
the strength of the surface wind field, precluding the addition of
Critical probabilities for Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday).
..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024
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