WW 252 TORNADO AL MS CW 170350Z - 170800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Alabama
Southern Mississippi
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1050 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A severe squall line over southeast Louisiana will
continue east and move into the Watch area tonight. In addition to
the risk for a couple of tornadoes, severe gusts (60-70 mph) capable
of wind damage may accompany the more intense thunderstorm cores and
outflow surges in the squall line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Gulfport MS to 30
miles southeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 250...WW 251...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Smith
WW 251 TORNADO LA CW 170055Z - 170800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 251
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Louisiana
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 755 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A broken squall line will move east into southeast
Louisiana this evening and progress east across the Watch area
tonight. In addition to the risk for a couple of tornadoes, severe
gusts (60-75 mph) capable of wind damage may accompany the more
intense portions of the squall line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles north of Lafayette LA to 35
miles east of Boothville LA. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 249...WW 250...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27035.
...Smith
WW 0252 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 252
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..05/17/24
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 252
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC097-170640-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MOBILE
MSC045-047-059-109-170640-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
PEARL RIVER
GMZ532-536-557-630-631-632-650-170640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
CHANDELEUR SOUND
WW 0251 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE 7R4 TO
30 W MSY TO 10 SE ASD TO 15 WNW GPT.
..GOSS..05/17/24
ATTN...WFO...LIX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 251
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC007-051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-109-170640-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASSUMPTION JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. TAMMANY TERREBONNE
GMZ530-534-538-550-552-555-170640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
LAKE BORGNE
BRETON SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM
WW 0250 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW SJT
TO 20 SSE SJT TO 15 S BWD.
..BENTLEY..05/17/24
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC095-267-307-319-327-411-413-435-170440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONCHO KIMBLE MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD SAN SABA
SCHLEICHER SUTTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 249
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE GLS TO
20 NE LCH TO 15 ESE POE.
..SPC..05/17/24
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 249
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-019-023-039-045-053-055-097-099-101-113-170240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN CALCASIEU
CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA
JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
TXC039-071-167-245-170240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRAZORIA CHAMBERS GALVESTON
JEFFERSON
GMZ335-355-430-432-435-436-450-452-455-170240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 17 06:04:07 UTC 2024.SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the central into eastern
Gulf Coast states and portions of the northern Great Plains this
afternoon through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A belt of seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow will
continue to gradually overspread the Gulf Coast states today. Near
the leading edge of this regime, models suggest that a convectively
augmented perturbation will weaken while progressing east of the
central Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity into the
Southeast this morning. This will be trailed by at least a couple
of additional perturbations emanating from shearing larger-scale
troughing emerging from the Southwest.
By 12Z this morning, a lower/mid-tropospheric baroclinic zone,
demarcating the northern periphery of warmer and more strongly
capping elevated mixed-layer air, may be roughly aligned with the
northwestern/north central Gulf coast after having been suppressed
southward. Preceding the primary remnant upstream troughing, it
appears that the warmer air aloft may return east-northeastward
across southeastern Louisiana through the eastern Gulf states during
the day. Although perhaps initially slowed by convective outflow
still advancing southward into the northeastern Gulf this morning,
boundary-layer moistening beneath this regime across southeastern
Louisiana through much of southern Mississippi and Alabama may
contribute to a corridor of moderately large mixed-layer CAPE by
late this afternoon.
Meanwhile, in higher latitudes, models indicate that a seasonably
strong belt of westerlies emerging from the northern mid-latitude
Pacific will continue to nose eastward across the northern Rockies
and Great Plains today through tonight. Significant cyclogenesis is
already underway to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S.
Rockies. While the initial cyclone may deepen further across
Saskatchewan, models indicate that a notable secondary surface
cyclone may form east-northeast of the Bighorn Basin through the
northern Great Plains Red River Valley later today through tonight.
Despite strengthening southerly low-level wind fields ahead of an
associated cold front, low-level moisture content likely will remain
seasonably low across much of the northern Great Plains, but
steepening lapse rates may still contribute to weak/modest
boundary-layer destabilization.
...Central/Eastern Gulf States...
In the wake of the weakening convective perturbation, the most
favorable mid/upper support for renewed convective development may
not begin impacting the region until mid/late evening. However, it
appears that the environment across much of southeastern Louisiana
through southern Mississippi/Alabama, southwestern Georgia and
western Florida will become at least conditionally supportive of
severe storm development, including supercells, by late this
afternoon. While potential convective evolution remains uncertain,
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm initiation seems possible
late this afternoon into this evening, before a more notable
increase in thunderstorm development and upscale growth occurs this
evening into the overnight hours. Stronger storms will pose an
initial risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps
a couple of tornadoes, before potentially damaging wind gusts
becomes the more prominent potential hazard tonight.
...Northern Great Plains...
Although there is spread within/among the various model output,
guidance (particularly the latest NAM) is suggestive that increasing
high-based thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of
southeastern Montana may generate a significant
northeastward/eastward propagating cold pool by late this afternoon.
Forecast soundings suggest that a deeply mixed boundary layer will
contribute to sub-cloud evaporative cooling and potential for severe
surface gusts. As this advances across portions of the western
Dakotas, it may encounter at least somewhat more unstable
boundary-layer air and contribute to further intensification. In
the presence of strengthening deep-layer shear, an increasingly
organized convective system may evolve and progress across the
middle Missouri into Red River Valley, accompanied by a risk for
severe hail and continuing risk for severe wind before weakening
overnight.
..Kerr/Bentley.. 05/17/2024
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