U.S. & Canada 00-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 081653
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE TRANS PECOS...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See
previous discussion for more information.
..Thornton.. 05/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024/
...Synopsis...
An upper-level cyclone over the central U.S. will evolve into an
elongated trough stretching from the Northeast into the Southwest
today. Enhanced mid-level winds will remain over the southern
Rockies, though will be weaker than previous days. Modest surface
low pressure will be located within Central Texas into the Rio
Grande Valley.
...New Mexico...Trans-Pecos...
Despite weakening synoptic features, surface winds will reach 15-20
mph across parts of these areas. Some winds may reach 20-25 mph hour
beneath the stronger mid-level flow. The most likely areas for this
will be southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos as well as parts of
northeast New Mexico. RH across the broader region will generally
fall to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire
weather is expected for a few hours.
|
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 081954
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous
discussion below.
..Thornton.. 05/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024/
...Synopsis...
The elongated upper trough will evolve into a closed low over the
Great Basin on Thursday. Farther east, the primary upper trough will
move into parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a
cold front will push south into the Southern Plains and cooler air
will push up against the southern Rockies.
Given the cooler air pushing into New Mexico, areas with the driest
fuels will not likely see much in the way of fire weather concerns.
Some dry and breezy conditions appear possible in parts of Arizona
into western New Mexico. Here, enhanced mid-level winds and a
modestly stronger surface pressure gradient will drive winds of
around 15 mph with locally greater speeds. Fuels in Arizona are
still in the process of drying out and winds do not appear strong
enough to support more than a locally elevated threat for western
New Mexico.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082144
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
Building surface high pressure will overspread the central/southern
Plains through much of the extended, keeping winds light and
limiting fire weather concerns where fuels are the driest.
Continued upper-level troughing over the western US and weak lee
troughing across the High Plains and will maintain areas of
dry/breezy conditions across eastern AZ/southwest NM. This may
support localized areas of Elevated fire weather concerns D3/Friday
and D4/Saturday. Rain chances are forecast to increase D3/Friday
across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should aid in
limiting fire potential in those regions.
As the western trough ejects into the Southern Plains D4/Saturday
into D5/Sunday, Critical conditions may return to far western
Texas/southern New Mexico. Potential for precipitation across this
region lowers confidence in including any areas with this outlook.
..Thornton.. 05/08/2024
|