ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311816

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

   Minor expansions were made to both Elevated areas based on the
   latest model forecast guidance. Dry and breezy conditions are likely
   from southeast Arizona into the western half of New Mexico but are
   not likely to meet elevated criteria. Additionally, elevated to
   locally critical winds/RH are likely farther north across the Great
   Basin into the West Slope, but current fuel conditions preclude
   expanding the Elevated area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
   track.

   ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday
   across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to
   become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and
   persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits.
   Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around
   the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH
   of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th
   percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only
   warrant Elevated areas at this time.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 312119

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0419 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 081200Z

   Quasi zonal flow will develop over much of the CONUS this weekend
   through early next week, and enhanced westerly flow will develop
   over northern portions of the West through early next week as an
   upper low is forecast to move into British Columbia. A weak
   atmospheric river will bring precipitation to along and west of the
   Cascades Day 3/Sunday into Day 5/Tuesday, with some spillover across
   the Inland Northwest and northern Rockies, west of the Divide. To
   the south of the precipitation, stronger surface winds are likely to
   spread across portions of the Intermountain West into early next
   week. 

   Model guidance continues to coalesce around an upper-level ridge
   building over the West and upper-level troughing over most of the
   eastern US mid to late next week. Temperatures of 5-20F above normal
   are expected across the West, including temperatures of 90-110F from
   the Southwest into the Great Basin, West Slope, and Central Valley.
   Ensemble forecast guidance also indicates the possibility of a
   cutoff low forming west of Baja/southern California late next week,
   which could help increase moisture advection into the Intermountain
   West, especially the Southwest late next week. 

   ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Southwest into southwest Texas...
   West-southwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected to overlap RH of
   5-25% across central/southern portions of the Intermountain West
   this weekend into early next week. The fuels farther north in the
   Great Basin and West Slope are not quite as dry as they are in much
   of Arizona, New Mexico, and southwest Texas where ERC-Y values are
   tracking above normal and near to above the 90th annual percentile.
   BI values are also forecast to exceed the 90th annual percentile in
   much of Arizona and New Mexico, with some areas possibly surpassing
   the 97th percentile. While very strong winds are not expected at
   this time, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are
   likely across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and into the Big Bend
   Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday and may linger to Day 5/Tuesday in
   portions of southern/central New Mexico and southwest Texas ahead of
   an approaching cold front.

   ...Day 6/Wednesday - Day 8/Friday: Intermountain West...
   Behind the dry and breezy conditions across the southern/central
   Intermountain West, upper-level ridging is expected to develop mid
   to late next week with increasing temperatures. The dry and breezy
   conditions across the central Intermountain West followed by above
   normal temperatures should accelerate fuel curing, with some areas
   in the Great Basin having well above normal fine fuel loading that
   could cure and become receptive to ignition/spread quickly. Current
   forecast guidance indicates that moisture will move west and north
   into the Southwest and Colorado Rockies late next week, bringing the
   possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms. Additionally, residual
   Pacific moisture may remain under the ridge resulting in chances of
   thunderstorms across portions of the central Intermountain West.
   However, there remains too much forecast uncertainty to include
   probabilities for dry thunderstorms at this time. 

   ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: central/south Florida...
   Near record KBDI and ERC-Y values remain across portions of central
   and south Florida and recent fire activity all indicate the
   potential for ignition and spread, given elevated to locally
   critical winds and RH. However, there is not enough confidence in
   the collocation of dry/breezy conditions to issue 40% areas for
   portions of central/south Florida through early next week. Locally
   elevated conditions remain possible away from sea breeze
   thunderstorms.

   ..Nauslar.. 05/31/2024