ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. (AL90):
An elongated area of low pressure offshore the southeastern U.S 
coast is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Despite strong upper-level winds, some gradual 
development is possible while the system moves northeastward 
offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or so. 
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to continue 
across portions of the Florida peninsula through late this week. For 
more information, see products issued by the Weather Prediction 
Center and local National Weather Service Forecast Offices.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early 
or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Weather Prediction Center products can be found at 
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov and National Weather Service forecast 
information can be found at www.weather.gov

Forecaster Kelly

021 
AXNT20 KNHC 131706
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jun 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1653 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, portions of 
the Florida Peninsula, and the western Atlantic: 

Abundant tropical moisture is surging northward from the western 
Caribbean, across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, also over 
portions of Florida, and across the adjacent western Atlantic 
waters. This moisture resides to the southeast of a surface 
trough that extends from near 30.5N78W southwestward to east-
central Florida north of Cape Canaveral to an elongated area of 
low pressure (Invest AL90) near 30N79.2W with a pressure of 1010 
mb. A surface trough continues from this elongated area of low 
pressure southwestward to near Tampa, Florida to 24N88W and to 
the central Bay of Campeche. Also, upper-level diffluent flow is 
present across the region. As a result, numerous showers and 
scattered thunderstorms are present southeast of the trough over 
the western Atlantic from 27.5N to 31N between 73W and 80W and 
south of 25N west of 77W including the Straits of Florida, the 
majority of the Florida Key, over central Cuba and its adjacent 
waters. In addition numerous thunderstorms are quickly 
developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche 
south of 22N. Cloud to surface lightning, strong gusty winds, 
rough seas and low visibility are ongoing within this convective 
activity over these areas. The shower and thunderstorm activity 
is expected to continue across the region through at least Fri. 
Mariners transiting these regions should exercise caution. 
Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather 
forecast offices for specific local information.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico: 
A barotropic Central American Gyre (CAG) is rapidly developing. 
Observations are indicating that heavy rainfall is already 
occurring before the main event that is forecast to begin Sunday 
morning, June 16 through the morning of Friday June 21. The 
persistence of moist onshore flow in the Pacific basins of 
Guatemala, Chiapas, Honduras and in El Salvador will favor 3-4 
days of intermittent rounds of heavy precipitation. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 
03N to 12N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No significant 
convection is depicted with this tropical wave. 

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W from 02N 
to 14N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered convection is 
depicted from 00 to 06N between 44W and 49W.

A Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W south of
12N eastern Venezuela. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered showers are near the wave axis south of 12N. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W south of
14N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Related numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is depicted south of 12N and east of 
81W and over the eastern Pacific near the coast of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near 13.5N17W to 08N26W. 
The ITCZ begins at 08N26W and continues to near 08N31W, and from 
08.5N34W to 07N47W, and from 08N51W to 08.5N58W. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection emerging off West Africa and 
extends from 03N to 10N between the coast and about 22W. This 
convection is most likely in advance of the next tropical wave.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about 
the ongoing heavy rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico 
and the upcoming rainfall event over Mexico. 

A stationary front extends from northeast Florida to just south 
of Louisiana, and westward from there to inland Texas near 
Houston/Galveston area. A trough extends from near Tampa Bay, 
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms are southeast of the trough impacting 
most of the southeastern Gulf and waters just offshore the 
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Outside of convection, light to 
gentle generally variable winds west of the trough, with 
moderate south to southwest winds east of the trough. Seas are 1 
to 3 ft west of the trough, and 3 to 4 ft east of the trough, 
except to 5 ft near the Yucatan Channel due to a southeast 
swell. Hazy conditions are over the SW Gulf due to ongoing 
agricultural fires are in Mexico.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough is expected 
to gradually weaken through late Fri. Looking ahead, a broad 
area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or 
middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward. Increasing winds and building seas are expected 
with this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more 
information about the upcoming Rainfall event over Central 
America and Mexico. 

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted at 
this time north of 17.5N between 18W and 82W due to a surge of 
tropical moisture. Outside of convection, the pressure gradient 
between Atlantic high pressure, lower pressures in the deep 
tropics, and the trough of low pressure across the southeastern 
Gulf of Mexico is resulting in moderate to fresh east to 
southeast winds over most of the basin, with the exception of 
the central basin, where winds are fresh to strong, including 
between Cuba and Jamaica. Seas range from 7 to 9 ft over the 
central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft east 
over the southwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure located NE of the area combined 
with the Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves will 
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean 
through tonight. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected 
over the northwestern Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough 
of low pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 
Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to 
continue across portions of the northwestern Caribbean through 
the rest of the week as a surge of tropical moisture persists 
across the region. Looking ahead, expect increasing winds and 
building seas over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of 
Honduras, over the upcoming weekend as a broad area of low 
pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more 
information about the heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic
and near and over portions of the Florida peninsula.

A stationary front extends from low pressure of 1017 mb that is
well north of the area near 37N61W southwestward to just north 
of the Florida Georgia line. Deep convection over the western 
Atlantic is described above in the Special Features section. 
Fresh to locally strong winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are north of 
28.5N to 31N between 73W and 77.5W. A surface trough supported 
by an upper-level is analyzed from near 30N46W to 26N45W and to 
20N48W. Broken to overcast mostly mid-level clouds with embedded 
with scattered showers and thunderstorms are depicted from 21N 
to 29N between 42W and 47.5W. A weak trough extends from 22N54W 
to 16.5N60W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 21N 
to 22.5N between 50W and the trough axis. Another weak surface 
trough is analyzed from 29N60.5W to 21N59W. Scattered moderated 
convection is depicted from 21N to 25N between the trough axis 
and 56W

Other than the features above, strong high pressure of 1033 mb 
located well north of the discussion area in the vicinity of the 
Azores has an associated ridge that reaches southwestward to the 
central Bahamas, disrupted by the troughs. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the basin 
west of 35W. Moderate to fresh trade winds east of 35W, except 
for fresh to strong northeast winds from the Cabo Verde Islands 
to the Canary Islands, including along the coast of Africa. Seas 
are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Saharan Air dominates the lower 
to middle atmosphere across the Atlantic from about 10N to 20N 
and roughly between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, an elongated area of low pressure 
offshore the coast of Florida is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite strong upper-
level winds, some gradual development is possible while the 
system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern U.S. 
coast during the next couple of days. The showers and 
thunderstorms will be numerous in coverage and contain gusty 
winds and frequent lightning at times over most of the western 
part of the forecast waters, mainly W of a line from 31N70W to 
the central Bahamas. Expect for little change with this 
convective activity through at least Fri. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds are expected over the western Atlantic ahead of 
this system during the next couple of days. As the low pressure 
departs, high pressure will build southward over the western 
Atlantic beginning this weekend and into early next week.

$$
KRV

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico and Central America:
Satellite imagery indicates that a broad area of low pressure has 
formed a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Some 
additional slow development is possible this weekend and early next 
week while the system moves slowly east-southeastwards.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Beven

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131602
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Central American Gyre (CAG) is rapidly developing. Heavy 
rainfall is already occurring, and the main event is not at its 
peak yet. The persistent moist onshore flow over portions of 
Guatemala, Chiapas, Honduras, and El Salvador will favor days of 
intermittent rounds of heavy precipitation. Excessive rainfall is
also expected over Costa Rica and Panama, from Friday through the
weekend, producing 8-12 inches of rain across these areas. This 
scenario is common during the developing of La Nina. Please refer
to your local meteorological office bulettins for more detailed 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern portion of the tropical
eastern Pacific, with axis along 81W from Panama to near 03N, 
moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted N of 02N and E of 82W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 16N96W to 08N126W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N126W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is from 05N to 16N between 90W and 
106W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered well NE of Hawaii extends a ridge 
southeastward to just W of the Revillagigedo Islands. This 
pattern supports moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja
offshore waters. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. A 
surface trough extends across the Gulf of California along 110W 
to south of Baja California. Moderate winds are on either side 
of the trough in the central and southern Gulf of California, 
with light and variable winds in the northern Gulf of California.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, except to 4 ft 
near the entrance. Gentle winds dominate the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, except for S of 14N, where the monsoon 
trough has lift N to. S of the trough, moderate to locally fresh 
SW winds prevail. Seas through the waters S of Baja California 
are 4 to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Thunderstorms persist 
across the waters south of 17N and east of 105W. North of 15N 
away from any convection and extending to offshore Jalisco, smoke
from agricultural fires may be restricting visibility somewhat 
over area waters.

For the forecast, troughing will extend from the Gulf of 
California to near the Revillagigedo Islands with broad ridging 
northwest of there. A relatively tight pressure gradient will 
yield an increase in winds on both sides of the troughing into 
the weekend. NW swell will impact waters offshore Baja California
this weekend into early next week, leading to seas of 8 to 13 ft
north of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun. A broad area of low pressure 
could form late this week a couple of hundred nautical miles off 
the coast of southern Mexico or Guatemala. Some slow development 
is possible this weekend and early next week while the system 
meanders near the coast. Thunderstorms will impact the waters 
offshore southern Mexico through the weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the section above for details on the developing Central
American Gyre.

The monsoon trough remains located farther north than its usual 
position for this time of year, and currently extends along the
coast of Guatemala then across El Salvador. Moderate southerly 
winds prevail across area waters. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in
SW swell, except 3 to 5 ft inside the Gulf of Panama and in the 
lee of the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, monsoonal winds, associated seas, and numerous
thunderstorms will dominate the region through the end of the
week. A broad area of low pressure could form Fri a couple of 
hundred nautical miles off the coast of southern Mexico or 
Guatemala. Some slow development is possible this weekend and 
early next week while the system meanders near the coast. This 
will allow for the monsoon trough to lift even farther northward 
toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with winds to the west of 90W 
increasing to fresh to locally strong, leading to building seas 
of 8 to 12 ft at times, highest late weekend into early next 
week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong SW winds are expected to develop
west of Colombia Fri and shift into the Gulf of Panama Fri night
and Sat before diminishing. Seas are likely build to around 8 ft
there with these winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 29N122W to 25N126W with moderate 
to fresh winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft to the W of it. Otherwise, 
broad ridging dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough 
and ITCZ, with mainly gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed 
swell west of 110W. To the east of 110W, fresh winds are south 
of the monsoon trough north of 03N, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft.
Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in S to SW 
swell are elsewhere east of 110W.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure centered NW of the
area will dominate waters west of 120W into the weekend. Fresh to
strong winds from the California Channel Islands southward are
likely to dip south of 30N at times this weekend into early next
week, with seas building to 8 to 13 ft by the end of the 
weekend. SW flow south of the monsoon trough is forecast to be 
fresh today between 90W and 110W, supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft. 
Similar winds and seas are likely to return there by the end of 
the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorms will persist near
the monsoon trough and east of 110W or so through at least the 
next couple of days.

$$
ERA

No Storms to Report