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Local Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS66 KSTO 241051
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
351 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild weather Sunday will be followed by rain and mountain
snow Monday into early Tuesday. A stronger storm is possible
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Afternoon thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue
Thursday and Friday with showers and possible thunderstorms each
day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry and mild weather arrives today as upper level ridging develops
over the area. High temperatures this afternoon will be near
normal levels, in the mid to upper 60s for the Valley, upper 50s
to lower 60s for the foothills and Delta, 40s to 50s for the
mountains.

The first of two systems arrives early Monday on the northwest
coast, spreading across the area through the day. It has trended a
little slower than previously, so areas south of Highway 50 may
not see a lot of precipitation until afternoon. The Winter Storm
Watch over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra has been
upgraded to a Warning for areas above 5000 feet, from Monday
morning to Tuesday morning. Storm total snow could reach 1 to 2
feet. Travel delays and chain controls are likely over mountain
roads. Wind gusts to 50 to 60 mph are possible over ridges.
Periods of poor visibility from wind and heavy snow are possible
at times.

On Tuesday the first system will be exiting to the east, while a
stronger system begins to arrive from the west. Unstable air over
the valley may lead to some afternoon thunderstorms in the
Valley. The second system will be moving into the region Tuesday
night but there may be some enhancement ahead of the main part of
the storm as it begins to interact with left-over moisture from
the first storm. This second storm will be the stronger and wetter
of the two storms, bringing significant travel hazards into early
Thursday. Snow levels will be around 4000 to 6000 feet, with
heavy snow possible above 5000 feet. Current estimates suggest to
3 to 5 feet of snow are possible over the higher mountains. Gusty
winds could combine with heavy snow to bring white out conditions.

Afternoon thunderstorms are possible over the Valley and foothills
on Wednesday behind a cold front. Shear and instability could be
significant, so there is the potential for severe storms. Stay
tuned for further updates on this. EK

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Unsettled pattern will continue later this week with cyclonic flow
continuing cool and showery weather on Thursday. Increased ridging
may allow for a couple mostly dry days on Friday and Saturday, but
another system is potentially lurking for late next weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours except local MVFR
visibilities possible in the Central Valley 13Z-17Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Monday to 11 AM PDT Tuesday for
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen
Park.

&&

$$





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