919
FXUS66 KOTX 161750
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1050 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and unstable conditions continue Thursday, with
  widespread highs in the mid 90s to low triple digits.

- A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms Thursday through Friday
  will bring lightning, hail, and strong outflow winds.

- Dry conditions this weekend, with temperatures remaining warm
  in the upper 80s and 90s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and unstable conditions, low humidity, lightning, and
gusty winds will maintain critical fire weather conditions
across portions of Central and Eastern Washington through at
least Thursday. Dry conditions resume this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday night into Thursday morning: An upper-level shortwave
tracking northward through the Inland Northwest will continue
to provide forcing necessary for showers and storms across
Central and Eastern WA. Precipitable water (PWAT) values remain
high, ranging from 160 to 200 percent of normal due to monsoonal
moisture in place over the region. While the high-PWAT
environment will support rainfall, fast storm motion will limit
rainfall totals to a tenth of an inch or less for most areas,
except where multiple cells move over the same area. Given fuel
dryness, any lightning strikes will be of concern for new
wildfire starts. Consequently, Red Flag Warnings remain in
effect across Central WA through Thursday morning.

Thursday afternoon into Thursday night: Ample surface heating
combined with 40 to 45 knots of 0-6km bulk shear and MUCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg will support robust storm
development over the eastern third of WA and the ID Panhandle.
Deep inverted-V soundings and DCAPE values over 1500 J/kg
indicate potential for strong to locally severe outflow winds as
a primary hazard with any storms, alongside lightning and hail.
Instability looks to persist well into Thursday night, keeping
the threat of thunderstorms alive until midnight or later. Given
all of these favorable parameters for strong storms, the Storm
Prediction Center has placed far Eastern WA and the ID Panhandle
under a Marginal Risk for severe storms Thursday.

Aside from convection, temperatures will be quite warm on
Thursday, running roughly 5 degrees warmer than Wednesday. This
will result in widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk across
lowland areas, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect.
Temperatures cool slightly on Friday by 5 to 10 degrees,
lowering the risk back into the Minor to Moderate categories for
most locations.

Friday: A dry slot will pivot over Central and Eastern WA,
lowering PWATs and bringing breezy winds. The combination of
winds and drier air will bring fire weather concerns for any new
or existing fires. Thunderstorm chances Friday will be confined
to far Northeast WA and the ID Panhandle with dry conditions
elsewhere.

Saturday through Tuesday: Global ensemble clusters show high
confidence in the low pressure system along the West Coast
tracking northeastward into British Columbia before migrating
eastward into Alberta. Following the exit of the low, dry
westerly flow will prevail through the weekend. High
temperatures will hover in the upper 80s to mid 90s. By early
next week, models suggest another trough approaching the West
Coast. Southwesterly flow is expected to advect more monsoonal
moisture into the region, bringing a renewed risk of showers and
thunderstorms that will need to be monitored in the coming days.
/Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A southerly flow with low pressure off the WA will
bring moist, unstable air to the area. This will lead to off and
on elevated -shra/-tsra. Cloud bases between 8-11k ft AGL are
expected, locally to near 5-7kft in any t-storms. This activity
could produce erratic wind gusts 20-25 mph and 30-40 mph in the
vicinity of heavier thunderstorms. The focus for a few strong
storms will be over southeastern WA and the Idaho Panhandle
between 00-05z. The cells will be capable of hail, frequent
lightning, and wind gusts around 60 mph. Hi-res models have
shown this threat as far south as Pullman/Lewiston and as far
north as Spokane/Deer Park, shifting into North Idaho. Overall
the risk lingers through much of this afternoon and evening,
gradually shifting toward northeast WA and north ID late
overnight into Friday AM.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions for the area. Low to moderate
confidence with timing of timing of showers and thunderstorms at
most terminals given the chaotic nature of the unstable
atmosphere today. Confidence is low for strong storms to move
across KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, KLWS but moderate for cells
within these general areas.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane       100  62  92  59  91  59 /  20  30  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene 100  64  91  61  90  59 /  20  40  10  10   0   0
Pullman        95  54  86  53  86  52 /  20  40   0  20   0   0
Lewiston      102  66  95  63  96  62 /  30  40  10  10   0   0
Colville       98  60  93  55  91  54 /  30  20  30   0   0   0
Sandpoint      97  60  91  58  89  56 /  20  50  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        97  60  89  59  87  56 /  20  60  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     99  62  93  59  93  58 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      97  66  93  64  91  64 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Omak          100  68  95  62  94  62 /  40  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for Selkirk Mountains
     of Northeast Washington (Zone 700).
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Washington Palouse.
     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lower
     Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709).
     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Eastern
     Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
     Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701).
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area-
     Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.
     Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle
     Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703).
     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley
     (Zone 703).
     Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for East Portion of
     North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central
     Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone
     698)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-
     Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).
ID...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for Northern and
     Central Idaho Panhandle (Zone 101).
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Coeur d`Alene
     Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-
     Lewiston Area.

&&

$$