506
FXUS66 KOTX 200712
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1212 AM PDT Thu Aug 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry conditions through Friday.

- Weekend system brings thunder threat and gusty winds,
  resulting in increasing fire weather concerns.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures increase well above average by Thursday and Friday
as high pressure dominates. A pattern change Saturday will
bring cooler, unsettled conditions. Unsettled conditions will
continue into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Friday: With the ridge over the region, warm, dry
conditions will persist. Ensembles have increased the highs.
Thursday will have moderate HeatRisk to portions of the Basin
and valleys with highs in the upper 80s and 90s. Friday will be
warmer with highs in the 90s. The lower Basin has around 60-80%
probability of 100+ degrees. Many areas including Spokane,
Pullman, Lewiston, and Moses Lake can reach Major HeatRisk.
Increasing clouds could impact the highs by keeping them a few
degrees cooler on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the upper
50s and 60s.

Late Friday through Saturday: The region can expect a pattern
change for the period. Ensembles have better agreement on the
track and timing of an incoming Low. It will move onshore over
the Oregon coast early Saturday morning and slowly track over
the Inland Northwest through the day. The slower track keeps the
threat of any thunderstorms limited to the Cascade crest on
Friday night. The thunderstorm threat will spread across the
region on Saturday (10-30% probability) with the highest chances
over the northern mountains. A low level jet of 40-50 kts will
keep the storms from delivering decent precipitation to an
area. The fast motion is making dry lightning a concern.
Elevated fire concerns are likely Saturday due to thunderstorms
and dry, windy conditions across the Basin. Winds will be
sustained 10 to 25 mph range with gusts into the 30 to 40 mph
range. Temperatures will be on a cooler trend as Saturdays highs
will be in the 80s.

Sunday through Wednesday: As the low exits, the ridge will
rebuild over the Pacific Northwest with a deep trough off the
coast. With a southerly flow pattern, ensembles are pushing
monsoonal moisture into the region. It keeps a weak threat of
isolated dry thunderstorms and light showers during the
afternoons. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s and
90s. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
TAF period. Winds will diurnally driven and remain less than 10
kts for most locations. Smoke from local wildfires may cause
minor reductions in visibility, but smoke models show
visibilities are expected to remain VFR at 6SM or greater.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in light winds and VFR conditions for all TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        94  59  97  65  92  57 /   0   0   0  10  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  93  60  98  67  92  58 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Pullman        93  55  97  59  89  50 /   0   0   0  10  10  30
Lewiston       99  66 102  71  96  63 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Colville       93  52  96  58  91  50 /   0   0   0  10  20  40
Sandpoint      90  56  94  61  89  53 /   0   0   0  10  10  50
Kellogg        91  58  96  62  90  54 /   0   0   0  10  10  40
Moses Lake     95  59  98  66  93  54 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Wenatchee      95  69  96  74  92  62 /   0   0   0  20  30  10
Omak           95  64  98  69  94  59 /   0   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Chelan County,
Douglas County, Ferry County, Grant County, and Okanogan County.

ID...None.

&&

$$