294
FXUS66 KOTX 061636
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
936 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions continue through
  Thursday.

- An incoming weather system on Friday will bring cooler
  temperatures, gusty winds, and chances for rain.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon temperatures will remain unseasonably warm in the 70s
and low 80s through Thursday. Conditions will stay dry until
Friday when a frontal passage brings chances for rain as well as
cooler temperatures and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday: Another day of warmer than average
temperatures with dry conditions is ahead of us due to the
persistent ridge over much of the western US. High temperatures
today will be in the mid to high 70s, around 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year. Clear skies and light winds will promote
efficient radiational cooling, keeping overnight lows closer to
normal. Northern sheltered valleys will see temperatures in the high
30s, while temperatures in the Columbia Basin, Spokane, and Palouse
areas will see lows in the mid 40s. High temperatures will warm by a
degree or two each day through Thursday as the ridge restrengthens.
Enjoy these warmer fall days while they last, because a cooldown is
in order for the weekend.

Friday through Sunday: Cluster analysis roughly 80 percent of
ensemble members favoring a strong trough and associated cold front
moving through the area Friday afternoon. There remains considerable
uncertainty in the track, timing, and strength of the trough.
Despite these differences, guidance remains consistent on a sharp
drop in temperatures from Friday into Saturday, along with
increasing winds. Highs will drop 10 or more degrees, with
temperatures returning to near normal levels in the upper 50s to low
60s. Precipitation chances remain highest in the mountains, though
snow levels do fall to around 4000-5000 feet in the central
Panhandle, bringing a small chance for mountain snow. Elsewhere,
precipitation chances reach 15 to 20 percent. At this point, winds
appear to be the primary impact. On Friday afternoon, wind gusts in
the Waterville Plateau and Columbia Basin look to increase to 30 to
35 mph, with gusts 20 to 25 mph elsewhere. Given the prolonged dry
stretch, blowing dust will be possible across the Columbia Basin
where soils remain dry. These gusts will create difficult travel
conditions, especially for high profile vehicles, and could blow
around unsecured objects.

Gusty conditions will continue Saturday and Sunday as winds from the
north increase. On Saturday, gusty winds will be mostly confined to
the Okanogan Valley, Waterville Plateau, and basin areas. On Sunday,
gusty winds will be more widespread, again reaching 30 to 35 mph in
the basin and Waterville Plateau. Bottom line, expect a potentially
chilly and windy weekend in the Inland Northwest, and stay tuned as
the forecast becomes clearer in the coming days. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected through the 24-hour period.
Patchy fog will gradually clear out of the mountain valleys of
northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through this
morning. This fog is not impacting any airports, nor is it
expected to. Skies will be mostly clear aside from a few passing
high cirrus clouds. Winds will be light (generally less than
7 kts) and diurnally driven.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions at airport terminals.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        45  76  46  77  48  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  75  46  75  47  71 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        45  76  45  76  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       48  79  49  79  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       39  76  39  75  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      44  72  43  71  44  68 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        46  74  46  74  47  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  78  44  79  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      53  78  54  79  55  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           46  76  47  77  50  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$