053
FXUS66 KPDT 061722
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1022 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions through much of this week.

- Mountain showers and breezy to windy conditions possible by
  the weekend.

- Cooler and wetter pattern over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not much to discuss with satellite & radar with upper high
pressure promoting dry and warm conditions through the next
couple of days. High temperatures will persist in the upper 70s
to lower 80s through Thursday (>90% chance). A potential for
slight fire weather concerns develop around Thursday in
association with a thermal trough. This allows slightly warmer
temps with low min RH`s across the region with values 20 to 30
percent with lower values of 10 to 20 percent across parts of
Central Oregon (70-80% chance).

Heading into Friday, guidance is in good agreement that the
ridge pushes off to the east with a trough/shortwave digging
down into the PacNW, allowing a cooler/wetter pattern to
develop. There`s a struggle with how models want to handle the
strength of the trough with only 53% of members strengthening
the trough enough to bring mountain showers into the region. The
introduction of the trough will bring strong pressure gradients
with 10-12 mb developing on the GFS between Portland and
Spokane between Friday and Saturday. NBM currently advertises
10-30% chances of wind advisory criteria (>45 mph gusts) across
parts of the Columbia Basin, Simcoe Highlands, and Kittitas
Valley. Strongest winds as of now look to develop near/at the
Cascade gaps in the overnight hours of Friday to Saturday.
Guidance remains fairly split how it handles the trough through
the rest of the weekend, with 64% of members bringing the trough
strong enough to bring mountain showers. At this time, most of
the guidance suggests QPF amounts to not be significant with
most QPF amounts less than 0.10 to 0.15 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail.
Winds are variable through most of the region. prevailing winds
will be calm and follow typical diurnal patters. Sky cover is
light with mostly high base clouds around 25,000FT.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
PDT  79  46  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  80  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  80  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  79  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  81  45  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  77  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  84  41  82  41 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  83  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  85  48  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  84  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...75
AVIATION...18