788
FXUS66 KSEW 011745
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
945 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026

.UPDATE...
Low stratus remains deeply entrenched over much of the lowlands
this morning, with pockets of fog underneath gradually
improving. Sun breaks are expected to develop by the mid to
late afternoon, with cloudy skies expected to remain with
better visibilities at the surface. As high pressure builds
inland, light winds and residual moisture at the surface will
likely result in widespread fog and low stratus early Monday
morning with areas of greatly reduced visibility. Confidence not
high enough this morning to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
Monday morning, but conditions will continue to be monitored.
No other updates to the forecast this morning outside of the
Aviation and Marine sections below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue across western Washington through
Monday as an upper level ridge moves over the Pacific Northwest.
The first half of the week will largely remain dry across the
area, with chances of precipitation increasing the second half
of the week as a series of systems approaches the Pacific
Northwest. A brief break in the unsettled pattern is possible
Friday night into Saturday as another ridge moves over the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level ridge will move into the region today and push
inland on Monday, maintaining dry conditions across western
Washington for the start of the week. Overnight lows will remain
cool, mainly dipping down into the 30s, and will bring areas of
additional frost development during the early morning hours. Ample
moisture in the low levels will also promote another round of
fog development across the western Washington on Monday morning.
Afternoon highs will be seasonable, mainly in the low to mid
50s both days.

A splitting system approaching the region Monday night into
Tuesday may bring some light precipitation to portions of the
coast and the Olympic Peninsula. The majority of western Washington
will remain dry, however, with temperatures warming a few degrees.
Morning lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area,
with afternoon highs expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Chances for precipitation will increase the second half of the
week as a series of systems looks to approach the Pacific Northwest.
At this time, a weak system looks to move across the area on
Wednesday, followed by a stronger system on Friday. The stronger
system on Friday will likely bring gusty winds and more widespread
lowland rain and mountain snow to the area. Discrepancy still
exists with the pattern heading into next weekend, but ensemble
clusters hint at a brief break in the parade of systems Friday
night into early Saturday as a ridge of high pressure temporarily
moves back over the region. The ridge looks to push inland
rather quickly however, which would open the door for additional
systems to move into the area by Saturday evening.

Temperatures will be near to just slightly above normal through
the period, with morning lows expected to be in the upper 30s
to upper 40s and afternoon highs expected to be in the mid to
upper 50s.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to LIFR conditions this morning associated with low stratus or
fog. Improvement to VFR likely after 20-23Z. Model guidance suggests
another round of stratus and fog likely by Monday morning for Puget
Sound terminals and along the coast. Light northerly surface winds
today across the interior terminals at 5 kt or less. Along the coast
southeasterly winds will transition northerly this afternoon at 5-7
kt.

KSEA...MVFR cigs this morning with thick stratus over the terminal.
Now expecting the stratus to scatter out by 21-23Z. Guidance hints
at another chance for low cigs Monday morning. As of now, thinking
IFR low stratus may impact the terminal rather than fog. While
confidence is low that fog will impact the terminal, fog may form
near the vicinity of the terminal. Latest guidance suggests
improvement to VFR Monday afternoon after 21Z. Light NW winds today
at 5 kt or less, becoming NE this evening.

29

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure rebuilds over the coastal waters today with dry
conditions finishing the weekend over the waters. Couple patches of
fog may affect portions of the Puget Sound waters this morning. A
weak system will brush the coastal waters Monday into Tuesday with
the chance of showers. While winds will pick up in the outer coastal
waters (with winds gusting up to 20 kt), the main concern for the
first part of the week will be seas increasing to 8-11 ft going into
tonight/Monday. A small craft advisory was issued to cover the
threat, which will likely continue into Tuesday with seas returning
to 6-8 ft Wednesday.

The second half of the week is more active with trough dropping out
of Alaska, and a couple of systems likely to affect the waters
finishing the week into next weekend. Best chance of winds greater
than 20 kt is with a system Wednesday/Thursday, Friday, and this
weekend, affecting the coastal and interior waters. Seas will
increase going towards the end of the week, peaking Friday with
heights up to 15 to 17 ft.

HPR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM PST Tuesday for
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
     Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$