523
FXUS64 KCRP 041151
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
651 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms return mid week.

- Cold front expected Thursday.

- Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high risk of rip
  currents possible Thursday-Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Temperatures will start to increase today through Wednesday with
increasing clouds and a moderate risk of heat-related impacts
Tuesday and Wednesday across most of South Texas.

A low (~20%)chance of rain return to the Victoria Crossroads
Wednesday as a dryline/surface low moves across the area. The rain
chances will increase to low to medium (25-45%) chances by Thursday
as cold front sags through the area. Rain chances will continue into
the weekend with a warm front lifting north Friday and an upper
level low moving toward South Texas.

Temperatures are a little tricky behind this cold front because it
is entirely possible the front will wash out before it actually gets
here, though guidance has been fairly consistent. With medium
confidence, we`ll expect cooler temperatures Thursday with a gradual
warm-up through the weekend.

Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high rip current risk is
possible Thursday and Friday due to a moderate northeast flow
developing across the western Gulf behind the cold front along with
increasing seas and swells.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are to be expected through the entirety of the
period. Winds will be out of the southeast through the period
around 10-15 knots. Gusts will be around 20-25 knots beginning in
the afternoon period across most if not all sites. Expect MVFR
ceilings to build back into the region this tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze will increase to a
moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze through the middle of the week.
Winds will shift briefly to the northeast late Thursday through
Friday night as a cold front moves across the area before returning
to the southeast Saturday. A low to medium chance of showers and
thunderstorms will return Wednesday and continue through the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35%
through the forecast period. This, combined with winds generally
less than 20 mph and ERC in the 0-40 percentile, will prevent fire
weather concerns. Low to medium rain chances return Wednesday and
continue through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  73  89  76 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          85  69  88  74 /   0   0   0  10
Laredo            90  72  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             88  71  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          82  74  84  77 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           91  71  97  75 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        85  71  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  76  84  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...NP/92