368
FXUS64 KCRP 182350
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
650 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect for South Texas and a Heat
  Advisory in effect for the Barrier Islands today until 8 PM.

- Heat Advisory Friday areawide.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding possible
  Friday.

- Small Craft Advisory in effect for the south nearshores
  initially, then including the offshore this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The egregious temperatures will be the main story today with major
heat related impacts once again. We already have a few areas such as
Alice that is reporting a heat index value of 120 degrees. Expect
highs to range from 104 to 90 across the area with heat indices
around 115-120 across the area due to high dew points. Heat indices
will be a little lower tomorrow with highs trending more into the
90s across South Texas. This will be thanks to increasing cloud
cover with a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon/evening. A Heat Advisory was issued for the entire
region tomorrow with heat indices expected to be around 110-115.
Will monitor for the need for an upgrade though as of right now
confidence is low on that possibility. Saturday looks to be our
"break" if you want to call it that where we won`t see as high of
heat indices, though they will still range around 105-110. Heat
increases once again thereafter which will likely necessitate heat
related products once again. Therefore, continue to check back for
future updates. Regardless the practice of heat safety is strongly
encouraged. Take frequent breaks and remember to stay hydrated,
check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these
temperatures. For more information be sure to check out
weather.gov/heatsafety.

Upper level ridging today will keep rain chances <5%, but by
tonight, as mid level high pressure strengthens across the gulf, a
weakness develops aloft over east and south TX. This will bring a
low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Rio
Grande Plains by early Friday morning. Rain chances increase to 20-
45% Friday night across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. The
best chance of showers and thunderstorms is Saturday across S TX due
to a strengthening mid level trough and deepening moisture. PWATs
are progged to increase up to 2.3 inches. The combination of deep
moisture and troughing aloft will lead to a more active sea breeze
Saturday afternoon. Rain chances taper off Sunday as mid level high
pressure over the gulf nudges westward and brings drier mid levels
across S TX. Rain chances will be low to very low through early next
week, but can not rule out a few showers along the sea breeze each
afternoon.

The rip current risk will be low today and tonight, but swell
periods are forecast to increase to around 8 seconds by Friday
leading to a moderate rip current risk. Minor Coastal Flooding is
not anticipated today but will be possible Friday during high tide.
Main factor keeping tides from overflowing on Friday will be the
wind direction of S-SE over the gulf waters. A more easterly
component combined with the 8 sec swell periods would be more likely
to push the water up to the dunes. Will continue to monitor trends
for possible minor coastal flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions will be expected across the region
overnight into Friday morning. CIGs will drop to MVFR levels
levels this evening, IFR possible from ALI to VCT towards the
early morning hours. Conditions will improve into the mid morning
hours. Winds are expected to be out of the southeast around
10-15kt with gusts up to 20-25 kts. Rain chances will be
increasing Friday evening for the Rio Grande plains.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south to southeast winds can be expected
today into early next week. Winds could be occasionally be strong
(BF 6) across the southern Bays and Nearshore waters at times,
particularly in the late afternoon. Small Craft Advisory will be in
effect this afternoon through this evening for the southern
nearshore waters. This evening all of the offshore waters will be
added into the advisory through 12Z Friday morning. This will be for
winds around 20 to 25 knots with wave heights around 6 to 7 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  92  82  90 /   0   0  10  30
Victoria          79  92  79  91 /   0  10  30  30
Laredo            81  99  78  95 /   0  20  50  30
Alice             79  94  79  91 /   0  10  10  40
Rockport          84  92  83  91 /   0   0  20  20
Cotulla           80  97  78  95 /  20  30  50  30
Kingsville        80  93  80  90 /   0  10  10  30
Navy Corpus       84  91  84  90 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-
     239>247-342>344-346-347.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ229>234-
     239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...TE/81