216
FXUS64 KHGX 061741
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1241 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With more sun, temperatures will run above seasonal averages,
  though humidity will be somewhat lower.

- Can`t completely rule out a brief shower or two, but best rain
  chances will be offshore.

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected at times,
  more so toward the end of the week from a nearby tropical
  disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Drier wx continues this afternoon with northeasterly flow from a
broad surface high over the eastern CONUS. Currently, a frontal
boundary is stalled over the northwestern Gulf, generally around
60nm from the coastline with showers (and isolated storms) ongoing
over the southern side of the boundary. Satellite derived TPW
shows values of ~1.3 inches near College Station and nearly 2.0
inches at the coastline. With this deeper moisture and troughing
overhead, isolated rain chances will remain in the forecast,
though mainly along the coast/over the Gulf waters. Rain chances
further inland will be slim to none.

We`re currently keeping a close eye on a disturbance over the
Southwestern Gulf. Currently this disturbance is just a cluster of
showers and storms ongoing in conjunction with a broad area of low
pressure. Wind shear is rather potent over the northern end of the
Gulf (due to the front & troughing), though the far southern extend
is lower, coinciding with SSTs of 29-31C. Overall conditions are
favorable for tropical development, with NHC giving this system a
90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
This system is currently expected to drift eastward towards Yucatan
Peninsula, later turning sharply north towards the Northern Gulf
Coast. No significant impacts are expected for SE Texas at this
time. Though regardless of tropical development, increasing winds
and seas will be possible across the upper Texas coast. Global
models are also showing the mid/upper trough currently overhead
filling northeast this weekend. We could see a small uptick in
showers/storms chances as well, but overall this flow pattern favors
steering the tropical system away from SE Texas.

Conditions briefly dry out around Sunday as the trough departs to
the northeast. Ridging builds over the Gulf coast early next week.
Onshore flow returns as well, resulting in rising temperatures,
moisture and rain chances.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR condition prevail through the entire TAF period. Winds out of
the NE between 5-10kts with a FEW-SCT low-mid levels clouds
speckling the sky this afternoon into evening. Winds overnight
become light and VRB with no CIG/VIS impacts expected. Tomorrow late
morning the NE breeze shifts more in a ENE fashion and will remain
between 5-10kts.

CMW

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Northeasterly winds are expected over the next several days,
currently light to moderate, though may warrant caution flags at
times. These winds should strengthen through mid week as the
pressure gradient tightens from a developing tropical disturbance
over the Southwestern Gulf. This system is currently expected to
drift eastward towards Yucatan Peninsula, later turning north
towards the Northern Gulf Coast. While there is still uncertainty
with timing/intensity, forecast track guidance generally keeps this
system east of SE Texas. Still, increasing winds and swells will be
possible later in the week. Small Craft Advisories are likely for
the Gulf waters, possibly as early as Thursday, diminishing by
around Sunday.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  91  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  70  92  72  92 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  87  79  87 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...03