077
FXUS64 KFWD 011746
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1146 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next storm system is forecast to sweep across the region
  Monday night into Tuesday. There is a low risk of severe
  weather, but details will continue to be refined over the
  weekend.

- Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers
  and storms move east.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas east of I-35, where
widespread 1/4 mile visibility will lead to poor driving
conditions. The immediate Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is largely
fog-free due to slightly warmer surface temperatures. Patchy dense
fog will also be possible along and east of I-35, however, expect
the patchy dense fog to be transient compared to areas under the
Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 139 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The main concern this early morning will be the development of
low clouds and fog within the moist boundary layer left behind
yesterday`s system. Light winds and pockets of clearing will
favor increasing coverage of fog towards daybreak, with the
greatest potential for widespread fog mainly across East and
Central Texas.

Conditions will improve fairly quickly during the late morning as
mixing strengthens beneath a transient mid-level ridge. Cloud
cover should scatter from west to east, leaving a dry and
considerably warmer afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 80s
across much of North and Central Texas, with light winds becoming
increasingly southerly during the afternoon.

Tonight will remain quiet, however, as a gradual pattern change
will be taking place ahead of the next storm system slated to
arrive on Monday. A deep trough moving through the Southwest will
induce strengthening lee cyclogenesis across the central Plains.
The resulting pressure falls will increase southerly flow across
Texas overnight while Gulf moisture continues to deepen northward.
Lows will remain mild, generally in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 139 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A much more dynamic pattern will develop Monday as the western
trough ejects into the Central and Southern Plains. Surface
cyclogenesis across Kansas will strengthen the pressure gradient
across Texas, resulting in sustained south winds of 15 to 25 mph
with gusts around 30 to 40 mph through much of the day.

Strong warm and moist advection will push surface dewpoints into
the 60s while temperatures climb into the lower and middle 80s.
Most of North and Central Texas should remain dry through at
least early afternoon, with the initial convective development
favored farther west of our area, along the cold front.

The thermodynamic environment will become increasingly favorable
for strong to severe storms Monday evening as stronger ascent
spreads east from the southern Rockies. A 40-50 kt LLJ will
maintain moisture transport while modest warm surface
temperatures yield roughly 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Although mid-
level lapse rates will not be particularly steep, weak inhibition
should allow storms to develop as the front arrives.

Thunderstorm initiation should occur just west/northwest of our
region with a mix of supercells or scattered storm clusters. As
the storms spread east, storms will quickly transition to a linear
mode capable of strong to damaging winds, quick spin up tornadoes
and isolated instances of large hail. The overall severe weather
threat will be greatest across North Texas, but strong storms may
extend farther south as the front moves through the region.

The front is slated to move through North Texas early Tuesday,
progressing southward into Central Texas by the afternoon. The
severe weather threat will quickly shift east of our region as
the system continues it eastward trajectory

A drier air mass will follow in the wake of the cold front.
Strong pressure rises and deep mixing will produce northwest
winds of 15-20 mph with occasional gusts to near 30 mph Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the 70s despite increasing
sunshine.

High pressure will continue to dominate through the rest of the
week, leading to a stretch of quiet and seasonable fall weather.
Afternoon highs will generally remain in the lower to middle 70s
with lows in the 40s to lower 50s.

Another upper-level disturbance may traverse the central Plains
late in the week, however, current guidance keeps the better
moisture and precipitation well north of our region. Dry and
pleasant conditions are expected through the remainder of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The majority of the dense fog has dissipated this morning as
vsby/ceilings continue to improve. The ongoing low clouds will
scatter out with VFR conditions (SCT-BKN around 4-5kft) expected
the rest of the day. Winds will remain generally from the
southeast less than 8 kts. Most of the overnight hours will
remain quiet before we see another potential for low clouds
Monday morning.

Recent model guidance has trended less aggressive regarding
widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsby, keeping this activity more
scattered. However, given the moist environment in place and the
southerly flow becoming more established, our thinking is that
some of the morning`s arrivals/departures could still be impacted
between 12-16Z. Conditions will improve by mid/late morning with
breezy southerly winds around 13-18 kts gusting to 20-25 kts
possible.

Looking ahead: a cluster/line of showers and storms will begin to
develop over northwestern Texas late Monday afternoon and approach
the I-35 corridor near/around 05-06Z Tuesday. There is a potential
for a few strong to severe storms in addition to the lightning
threat. Confidence in any development ahead of this line is low
and/or is outside of this current TAF cycle. Trends will be
monitored as new data arrives.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  85  64  75 /   0  10  90  10
Waco                65  85  65  77 /   0   0  90  50
Paris               62  84  65  76 /   0  20  90  40
Denton              63  85  60  75 /   0  20  90  10
McKinney            63  84  62  74 /   0   0  90  10
Dallas              67  86  65  76 /   0   0  90  20
Terrell             64  85  64  75 /   0  10  90  40
Corsicana           66  85  67  75 /   0  10  80  50
Temple              65  86  65  78 /   0   0  80  50
Mineral Wells       63  84  58  75 /   0  30  80   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Sanchez