715
FXUS64 KEPZ 060433
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1033 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 934 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

 - Hit and miss isolated to scattered showers Monday and
   Tuesday.

 - Drier air and warmer conditions return Wednesday, as westerly
   flow pushes moisture back east. Temperatures will warm back
   above normal beginning Wednesday.

 - Increasing winds late week, with continued dry weather will
   elevate fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 934 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Warmer tomorrow in response to upper level ridging over the area.
A shortwave will arrive starting Monday afternoon and evening and
will progress eastward across northern NM into Tuesday. This will
allow for more rain chances across the area. Rain showers will
begin late Monday afternoon and into the evening out west and will
continue to spread eastward with the shortwave. Some lingering
showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms expected Tuesday
afternoon. Rain showers move out by late Tuesday. Winds look tame
each afternoon with generally light afternoon breeziness expected
Monday through Thursday. The next system will feature a cutoff low
from the Pacific and looks to arrive Saturday. This system will
bring breezy to windy conditions and yet another shot at showers
and thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 934 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Fairly light winds overnight, but KDMN may stay somewhat breezy at
10-15KT. Southeast winds expected tomorrow afternoon with mild
breezes at 10-15G20-25KT. Mid and high clouds will be on the
increase from west to east tonight becoming BKN to OVC tomorrow
afternoon. Rain showers arrive first at KDMN as early as the mid
afternoon hours tomorrow. Rain chances will spread eastward
through the overnight hours Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1004 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A boost in moisture, from the east, behind yesterday`s cold front
will help to keep fire weather concerns low through midweek. This
change in the weather pattern will keep temperatures at or below
normal through Tuesday, with plenty of passing clouds, elevated
RH, and isolated to scattered light rain showers for Monday and
Tuesday. Winds will be moderate to breezy from the E and SE, but
well below concerning levels, and those winds will be responsible
for the ingest of the Gulf moisture, keeping RH up.

Wednesday we shift back to a modestly breezy west wind pattern,
which will flush the moisture out of the region. Thus we see the
start of warmer than average temperatures and lowering RH. Same
for Thursday, resulting in elevated fire wx conditions. No fire
wx products are anticipated later this week as winds should stay
below critical thresholds and min RHs will be in the teens,
staying out of the single-digit range. Late week we see a deep
pacific low pressure system slowly work it`s way east toward the
region. As it approaches we will see increased winds over western
areas Friday. Rain/storm chances appear possible over far eastern
areas late in the week, as Gulf moisture attempts to wash in from
the east on a possible dryline . Confidence is low in where the
dryline sets up, if it develops setup.

Min RHs range from 15-35% through Tue, then 10-25% Wed/Thu. Vent
rates will be good to very good today, then poor to good Mon; very
good to excellent Wed onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  47  74  53  79 /   0  10  60  10
Sierra Blanca            41  69  46  76 /  20  10  70  20
Las Cruces               41  70  48  75 /   0  10  60  20
Alamogordo               38  72  46  73 /   0  10  80  50
Cloudcroft               27  51  34  50 /   0  10  80  70
Truth or Consequences    44  70  51  73 /   0  20  80  50
Silver City              39  63  44  70 /   0  30  70  20
Deming                   44  72  49  78 /   0  20  70  10
Lordsburg                44  70  45  77 /   0  20  40   0
West El Paso Metro       49  73  54  79 /   0  10  50  10
Dell City                39  72  46  77 /  10  10  60  30
Fort Hancock             45  77  51  84 /  10  10  60  10
Loma Linda               41  67  48  72 /  10  10  50  20
Fabens                   45  75  52  82 /  10  10  40  10
Santa Teresa             44  72  50  78 /   0  10  50  10
White Sands HQ           45  72  53  76 /   0  10  60  30
Jornada Range            37  70  46  75 /   0  10  70  30
Hatch                    39  73  49  78 /   0  10  80  30
Columbus                 46  74  51  81 /   0  10  50   0
Orogrande                39  70  47  74 /   0  10  70  30
Mayhill                  30  62  36  62 /   0  10  70  60
Mescalero                29  62  36  61 /   0  10  80  70
Timberon                 31  57  36  60 /   0  10  70  60
Winston                  31  62  37  67 /   0  30  80  50
Hillsboro                41  67  46  72 /   0  20  80  30
Spaceport                36  70  44  73 /   0  10  80  30
Lake Roberts             36  65  41  69 /   0  30  80  30
Hurley                   39  66  42  72 /   0  20  60  10
Cliff                    41  71  44  78 /   0  30  60  10
Mule Creek               41  67  43  74 /   0  30  60  10
Faywood                  40  65  45  72 /   0  20  70  20
Animas                   45  73  46  79 /   0  20  30   0
Hachita                  42  71  45  78 /   0  20  40   0
Antelope Wells           44  74  46  80 /   0  20  30   0
Cloverdale               44  71  49  74 /   0  20  30   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher