907
FXUS64 KCRP 041848
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
148 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts Tuesday.

- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms return mid week.

- Cold front expected Thursday.

- Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high risk of rip currents
possible Thursday-Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Mostly cloudy skies and slightly warmer temperatures tonight. A
moderate risk (a few locations at a major risk) of heat related
impacts Tuesday. The heat risk will generally be across most of S
TX, except the Victoria Crossroads.

Rain chances return to the Victoria Crossroads by Wednesday when a
surface trough/dryline develops across S TX and combines with an
embedded mid level short wave. A capping inversion will inhibit
convective develop farther south and west. A cold front is expected
to move through S TX Thursday morning, bringing a 30-40% chance of
showers and thunderstorms across all of S TX. The capping inversion
is progged to decrease and the front looks to coincide with another
embedded short wave aloft. Rain chances continue behind the cold
front through Friday due to the tail end of the mid/upper level
trough cuts off over Mexico. The GFS is more aggressive with this
feature which would keep low to medium rain chances through
Saturday. For now, the other models forecast a weakening upper
trough tracking north of S TX with low rain chances for S TX.

Behind the cold front, cooler temperatures will filter into the area
Thursday and continue through Friday. Northeasterly winds shift to
the east and southeast Friday and usher warmer temperatures back
across S TX.

Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high rip current risk is
possible Thursday and Friday due to a moderate northeast flow
developing across the western gulf behind the cold front along with
increasing seas and swells.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR CIGs expected the rest of this afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGs
are expected to develop between 05-08Z tonight and is forecast to
prevail across S TX through the overnight hours. CIGs are expected
to lift to VFR levels by mid morning Tuesday. SSE winds gusting to
20-25 knots will continue this afternoon, then gusts 22-27 knots
expected Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeast breeze expected tonight. A
fresh (BF 5) onshore flow is expected to develop through this
evening and continue through Tuesday. Winds may briefly reach
advisory levels Tuesday afternoon for the bays and nearshore waters
south of Port Aransas. The chance for showers and thunderstorms
returns the latter part of the week in response to an approaching
cold front. A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northeast flow is expected
to develop behind the cold front Thursday. Winds decrease and shift
to the east-southeast Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35%
through the forecast period. This, combined with sustained 20 foot
winds less than 20 mph and ERC in the 0-40 percentile will prevent
fire weather concerns. Wetting rains expected to return the latter
half of the week in response to an approaching cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  89  76  90 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          69  88  73  89 /   0   0   0  20
Laredo            72  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             70  96  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          74  85  76  86 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           71  98  75  94 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        72  94  76  94 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       75  84  77  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...TE/81