148
FXUS64 KBRO 022346
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
546 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

 - There is a chance of brief light showers near and east of I-69 E
   this afternoon.

 - Breezy conditions continue during the daytime today and tomorrow,
   with gusts of 25-30 mph expected.

 - A moderate risk of rip currents becomes a high risk this
   evening through tomorrow afternoon.

 - Temperatures warm into the 80s tomorrow ahead of a cold front
   moving through the region late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow
   night.

 - Dry conditions continue into next week with temperatures
   warming back to the 80s by Saturday, while overnight lows fall
   to the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A few brief light showers are possible this afternoon near and east
of I-69 E as well as over the Gulf waters ahead of a weak mid-
level shortwave trough advancing over the Desert Southwest,
forming an area of surface low pressure and cold front over the
Texas Panhandle this evening. A surface high over the Gulf
continues to lead to southeasterly to southerly winds today into
tomorrow, breezy (around 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph) during
the afternoon hours as the surface high interacts with pressure
falls to our west. Due to warm air advection, afternoon high
temperatures increase from the low/mid 70s inland (upper 60s to
near 70s along/near the coast) today to mainly 80s inland and 70s
along/near the coast tomorrow. Meanwhile, an upstream ridge flows
southeastward over the Rockies and Southern Plains tonight into
tomorrow, helping to push the cold front into the Rio Grande
Plains possibly by late tomorrow afternoon, moving through the
rest of the CWA throughout tomorrow night, shifting winds out of
the north and cooling temperatures into the 50s by Wednesday
morning. Another shortwave emerges over the Southern Plains on
Wednesday, sending a secondary surge of high pressure southward
into the region during the day, leading to breezy northerly winds,
cloudy skies and a low (15%) chance of light showers or drizzle
along/near the coast Wednesday afternoon. Near average highs are
anticipated on Wednesday (in the low/mid 70s), falling to the
40s/50s Wednesday night. Ridging resumes overnight Wednesday,
gradually clearing skies into Thursday. Surface high pressure over
western Texas maintains northerly winds, with highs in the
60s/70s on Thursday. Clear skies, light northeasterly winds,
becoming light and variable overnight Thursday, allow for
efficient radiational cooling, with temperatures falling to the
upper 30s across the Northern Ranchlands and 40s elsewhere.

Ridging aloft and high pressure over the Gulf results in continued
dry conditions and southeasterly to southerly winds for the
remainder of the forecast (through the weekend and into the
beginning of next week). High temperatures increase from the 70s on
Friday to mostly 80s on Saturday into next Monday while overnight
lows fall to the 50s.

A moderate risk of rip currents becomes a high risk this evening
through tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Through 00z Wednesday.....By and large, VFR conditions will
prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. There could be a few MVFR
clouds around from time to time.

The main weather concern to aviation ops for the local terminals
through the 00z TAF cycle will be the wind. An enhanced sfc pressure
gradient or tightened isobars nearby will result in a continuation
of windy conditions this evening through the day on Tuesday.
Southerly winds 20-30 mph with peak gusts between 30-40 mph will
continue through much of the 00z TAF period. This could have impacts
on east to west oriented runways.

Winds near the sfc this evening into tonight will let up slightly as
mixing heights decrease. That said, the risk for low level wind
shear (LLWS) will increase at all the terminals later this
evening/tonight through mid to late morning on Tuesday as winds
between the sfc and 2,000 feet AGL decouple, with 2,000 ft winds
ranging between 30-40 kts. Have LLWS highlighted in the TAFs between
the hours of 05z/Tues to 17z/Tues.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Moderate to fresh south-southeasterly winds and slight to moderate
(2-4 feet) seas this afternoon increase to strong winds and moderate
(5-7 feet) seas overnight tonight into tomorrow as a pressure
gradient tightens. There is a low (15-25%) chance of isolated to
scattered showers this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
goes into effect 6 PM this evening until 6 PM Tuesday for the
Lower Texas Gulf Waters (0-60 nm). Conditions temporarily improve
throughout Tuesday evening/night, with gentle to moderate winds
and moderate (3-4 feet) seas ahead of a cold front passing through
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, shifting winds out of
the north. A secondary surge of high pressure passes through mid-
morning into Wednesday afternoon, with fresh northerly winds
becoming strong with moderate (5-7 feet) seas again overnight
into Thursday; Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are
expected Wednesday, with SCA likely again Wednesday night into
Thursday. Additionally, chances of showers increases late Tuesday
night to as much as a low to medium (20-50%) chance Wednesday
morning through the afternoon hours, with dry conditions returning
possibly by Wednesday evening. Conditions improve throughout
Thursday with gentle to moderate winds prevailing, becoming
southeasterly to southerly by Friday along with slight to moderate
seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             63  78  59  75 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               58  81  54  72 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 61  84  58  74 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         58  83  54  74 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      64  72  60  68 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     60  77  57  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma