419
FXUS64 KBRO 061730 AAC
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

 - The National Hurricane Center has a high chance for tropical
   cyclone development over the southern Gulf in the next 48
   hours. It is still to early to tell what if any impacts Deep
   South Texas may see if development occurs.

 - Rain chances continue through the work week, with the best rain
   chances generally along and east of I-69C.

 - High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s to
   low 90s through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Daily rain chances are forecast to continue through the week,
with the highest rain chances roughly along and east of I-69C. An
upper level trough is expected to dig south into South Texas
Tuesday, which will likely support increased forcing across Deep
South Texas. An amplifying shortwave may result in more widespread
rain chances Thursday. Model guidance continues to support
showers and thunderstorms developing over the Gulf then moving
onshore with the sustained northeasterly low level flow. This will
likely support training showers and thunderstorms, which could
result in areas seeing repeated rounds of convection and increased
rainfall accumulations. However, over the next couple days, the
heaviest activity is forecast to remain to the south, or possibly
clip portions of Cameron County. This will likely limit the
potential for flooding across most of the area, though some
ponding of water on roadways will remain possible.

As rain chances increase Thursday, the Weather Prediction Center
has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for
Cameron, and Willacy counties, and eastern portions of Hidalgo and
southeastern portions of Kenedy counties.

High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s to low
90s through the work week, climbing to the low to mid 90s by the
weekend. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain in the
low to mid 70s through the week.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a low pressure system in
the southern Gulf with a 70% chance of tropical cyclone
development in the next 48 hours and 80% chance of development in
the next 7 days. It is still to early to determine what if any
impacts Deep South Texas might see if development occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions and light northerly winds should prevail through
most of the 18 Z TAF cycle, though brief periods of light to
moderate shower activity, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, are
possible at KBRO and KHRL, which could reduce ceilings and
visibility to MVFR at times. Meanwhile, KMFE should remain dry,
though a light shower or two is not out of the question.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Generally favorable winds and seas are forecast Tuesday and
Wednesday, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
likely over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. Winds and seas are
forecast to increase Thursday, and Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories may be needed going
into the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a low pressure system in
the southern Gulf with a 70% chance of tropical cyclone
development in the next 48 hours and 80% chance of development in
the next 7 days. It is still to early to determine what if any
impacts Deep South Texas might see if development occurs, however
significant changes to the marine forecast are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             76  89  77  90 /  60  70  40  60
HARLINGEN               72  91  72  91 /  30  60  30  60
MCALLEN                 76  93  75  93 /  10  50  20  50
RIO GRANDE CITY         73  93  72  92 /  10  20  20  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  86  80  86 /  80  80  60  70
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  89  76  89 /  70  70  50  60

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM....60
AVIATION...65-Irish