386
FXUS64 KAMA 161816
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
116 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- A 10 to 25 percent chances of storms remain present today
  through Friday afternoon with main impact being heavy rainfall.


- Dry and hot conditions will begin to build back in this weekend
  with potential to be back near or in the triple digits by the
  start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Present observations for today as well as latest radar has seen
the surface low shift further north than initially expected. This
has seen more showers build just to our south with current storm
motion seeing potential for said showers or at least a boundary
making its way into the Panhandles. While these showers and/or
boundary would have to still deal with the drier air holding
strong in the mid to upper-level of the atmosphere, there is still
some decent moisture present at the surface that can either help
maintain or start new showers across the Southeastern Texas
Panhandles. In terms of impacts, present models continue to see
little to no CAPE or wind shear present, which makes the potential
for severe thunderstorms very low. Instead focus has been more on
the PWAT values as models continue to see them trend on the higher
side, especially across the southeast. As it stands present
mesoanalysis is seeing values anywhere between 1.3 to 1.5 across
our southeast with the rest of the Panhandles siting above 1 inch.
With values like this present it would be possible to see heavy
rainfall even out of small storms, which could lead to some
localized flooding should storms stall or train over an area. This
concern becomes further amplified come Thursday night into Friday
afternoon, as most CAMs see PWAT values rise even further with
some runs even suggesting values nearing 2 inches in the far
Southeastern Texas Panhandles. If storms can develop under those
conditions, then very heavy rainfall could easily lead to more
flooding concerns for the day. However, the issue once again
revolves around actually getting storms to form as most CAMS do
see the present low start to weaken Friday afternoon in favor of
building high pressure. Still a few CAMs have held on to the
potential for scatter to isolated showers present across the
Panhandles with the best chances, at around 10 to 25 percent,
holding in the southern Texas Panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Upper-level pattern does look like it will begin to shift once
again as we head into the weekend and next week. Currently present
model agreement sees the weak upper-level low break down in favor
of a much stronger ridge and high pressure system settling just to
our north. This ridge will make quick work of any present moisture
over the Panhandles with chances of showers dropping below 10
percent by Saturday with Sunday and the rest of the week fairing
no better. With high pressure returning, the Panhandles will also
see temperatures begin to warm with most locations back in the low
to mid 90s this weekend. Unfortunately this trend will continue
into next week with afternoon high temperatures once again
threatening to reach the triple digits, and some of our hotter
locations, such as the Palo Duro Canyon, potentially needing heat
related products.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Present radar and satellite have seen the surface low to our
south shift further north than initially expected, which has seen
some showers start to develop near the Southeastern Texas
Panhandles. At this time confidence is low that any of these
showers will either make it to or develop over the terminals for
this afternoon and evening. Instead it will be more likely to see
few to scatter cloud decks present over the area with all
terminals holding at VFR conditions for the current TAF package.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11