591
FXUS64 KMEG 011746
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1146 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- After a brief break from the rain on Monday, showers and
  thunderstorms return to the forecast for the second half of
  Tuesday into Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts will generally be
  between 1 to 2 inches.

- A secondary cold front will arrive late this week with much
  cooler air expected. Highs are anticipated to be mainly in the
  60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

This morning`s upper air analysis featured a southern stream mid-
level trough moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Regional WSR-88D radar trends showed some lingering rain showers
mainly over north Mississippi late this morning, with other areas
mostly rain free at this time. Temperatures ranged from the
middle 50s to the lower 60s.

Rain showers will continue to diminish into this afternoon as the
aforementioned shortwave trough departs the Mid-South and
shortwave ridging builds into the area. Highs this afternoon will
range from the lower 70s across portions of east Arkansas and
northwest Mississippi to the lower 60s over northwest Tennessee.
Rain free weather will continue through Monday night across the
area with temperatures rising back into the 70s into Tuesday as
warm air advection returns to the region.

Short-term model trends continue to show the Pacific Coast upper-
level trough ejecting into the Central and Southern Plains by
Monday night and deepening as it moves through the Mississippi
Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. Model consensus still shows
the best timing for onset of showers and thunderstorms across the
Mid-South occurring late Tuesday afternoon west of the
Mississippi River, then spreading east across the remainder of
the area Tuesday night. Despite favorable shear, mid-level height
falls, and upper-level forcing present, a lack of quality
instability is expected to limit the overall strong to severe
thunderstorm potential as a cold front moves through the area and
instability decreases with the loss of diurnal heating. Much of
the model guidance including the RRFS shows instability being
pinched off as the system occludes across the region. LREF
probabilities of surface-based CAPE values of at least 500 J/kg,
and 30 kts of shear remains at 10-15% at best over portions of
east Arkansas south of I-40 and portions of northwest
Mississippi. NBM probabilities for 48 hour rainfall show a high
chance (70-100%) for most locations receiving around an inch of
rain, and a medium chance (40-60%) for some areas east of the
Mississippi River receiving at least 2 inches.

High pressure will gradually build back into the Mid-South
Wednesday through Thursday night with long range ensembles
showing an additional upper-level trough and secondary cold front
rotating through the region. Temperatures behind this secondary
front will be much cooler with highs mainly in the 60s next
weekend with lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Messy TAF set persists in this issuance as a mix of IFR and MVFR
cigs remain present across the airspace. Very light rain is
expected to impact JBR/MKL through the afternoon hours.
Overnight, drizzle is expected across all terminals with
continued IFR ceilings. A few brief drops to LIFR ceilings can`t
be ruled out overnight at JBR/TUP, but confidence was not high
enough to prevail in TAFs. East/southeast winds will remain
elevated at around 8 kts through the overnight hours before
gusting up to 20 kts shortly after sunrise Monday.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as
minimum relative humidity values will remain well above 40%
through the upcoming week. High pressure will build back through
Tuesday morning, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning
for later Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH