825
FXUS62 KCAE 011133
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
633 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A few light showers are possible today in the CSRA. Aviation
updated for 12z issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Outside of a few showers today, rain chances remain low
  through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Outside of a few showers today, rain chances
remain low through midweek before a potentially more active
pattern for late week.

Currently, an upper shortwave is moving through the Gulf states.
A few light showers have developed in response to this shortwave
and are moving to the northeast. Meanwhile, a surface high
continues to edge its way into the region, keeping relatively
dry air in place despite the cloud cover. The rain showers are
struggling to overcome the dry air over the forecast area at the
moment, but observations indicate moistening just west of the
area. Chances for light showers will remain across the CSRA
through late morning as additional activity moves near the
area. Locations outside of the CSRA are are expected to remain
dry today.

This shortwave is forecast to move eastward and flatten out,
allowing for dry days through midweek. Out west, a deeper trough
moving into the western CONUS is forecast to eject eastward
through most of the week, slowing as it reaches the central
CONUS. Additionally, a surface low and attendant front are
forecast to develop in response to the trough. As a result,
increased moisture is anticipated to move into the area, leading
to higher chances for showers and thunderstorms for mid to late
week. That said, there remains noticeable differences between
models and model runs, suggesting higher uncertainty in details
of the evolution of the system as it moves toward the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.

Widespread cirrus remains across the region. Low-levels may see
some moistening as moisture from aloft falls into it this
morning, especially in the CSRA. Some light sprinkles/rain did
fall overnight, although nothing measurable. Additional rain
moving up from the southern CSRA may impact ags/dnl later this
morning, but once again it would be light, and vfr conditions
would continue even with the light rain. Have included a tempo
for 6sm -ra, although it would be more like a sprinkle or two.
Activity through the day should have little impact in the
Midlands, so those taf locations should remain vfr and dry.

Winds should picking up to around 10 knots after sunrise with
intermittent gusts up to 20 knots into the afternoon. With the
winds and clouds, fog will not be an issue this morning. Gusts
diminish this evening, with sustained winds back down to around
5 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases early
next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions on Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...73