908
FXUS62 KGSP 030001
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated tonight`s temperatures and min temps. New aviation
discussion for 00z TAFs.

Low to moderate confidence in the potential for very light snow
to occur across portions of the foothills and Piedmont Wednesday
evening into early Thursday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Not as cold, but temperatures remain well below normal
tonight. Dry conditions continue through Tuesday for most areas,
although rain chances will increase across the North Carolina
mountains starting late Tuesday afternoon.
2. A front crosses the area Tuesday night through Wednesday
bringing precipitation back to the area with light snow possible
Wednesday night.
3. A brief round of mountain snow is possible Friday night,
otherwise temperatures return to seasonal averages through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Not as cold, but temperatures remain well below normal
tonight. Dry conditions continue through Tuesday for most areas,
although rain chances will increase across the North Carolina
mountains starting late Tuesday afternoon.

Light winds continue across the area though many more sites are
calm now as opposed to this time yesterday evening. Snow cover did
have a notable influence on min temps Mon morning in/near the I-77
corridor once winds finally died down in the predawn hours. Though
snow cover diminished with the warmer temps Mon aftn, given good
radiational cooling and likely some areas still with snow, updated
mins to be slightly lower in that area, and made hourly adjustments
through the evening per latest obs.

Any moisture that is left behind from melting snow on roadways,
sidewalks, driveways, parking lots, bridges, and overpasses should
again easily freeze tonight as temperatures will once again fall
below freezing this evening into tonight. Thus, patchy black ice
will be a concern again tonight into mid-morning Tuesday, especially
on bridges and overpasses as well as untreated roadways. Will
take a spin thru area webcams to evaluate road conditions before
potentially issuing.

Dry conditions linger across most locations through Tuesday thanks
to surface high pressure, but precipitation chances will increase
across the North Carolina mountains ahead of an approaching front.
For now it appears that areas along the NC/TN border will have the
best chance to see precipitation develop late Tuesday afternoon into
early Tuesday evening. Temperatures will be warm enough for mostly
rain, but some of the higher elevations will see temperatures drop
near to below freezing allowing for a rain/snow mix or even a full
transition to snow at the highest peaks. Snow accumulations will
remain light through 00Z Wednesday.


Key message 2: A front crosses the area Tuesday night through
Wednesday bringing precipitation back to the area with light snow
possible Wednesday night.

By tomorrow night, a tall ridge will extend up the West Coast with a
piece of Pacific energy diving down the eastern flank into the Great
Plains. Ahead of this feature, a broad swath of westerlies is
forecast to extend from the Deep South into the Carolinas in the
base of a mean trough. With time, this flow will shift to out of the
southwest as the upstream trough digs over the Southern Plains. At
the surface, a cold front will be progressing from the Mississippi
Valley towards the Appalachians in advance of a 1035mb high spilling
into the Plains. At least some precipitation will likely be ongoing
across the mountains at the start of tomorrow night with this
activity spreading east through the overnight into Wednesday
morning. Guidance continues to depict profiles that are too warm for
wintry weather east of the mountains with the greatest chance for
snow to be across the highest elevations of the mountains, generally
above 4000ft. The upper trough remains positively tilted with only
modest forcing, which throws some question as to how much
precipitation makes it east of the mountains. At least isolated to
widely scattered showers seem likely, but coverage and amounts of
rainfall appear rather limited.

Heading through the day Wednesday, the latest suite of models
continues to depict a surface low developing along the advancing
cold front within an inverted surface trough extending from the
coast up I-26. The surface low then slides east roughly along the I-
20 corridor through the evening and into early Thursday morning. In
response, light QPF blossoms across portions of the North Carolina
foothills and Piedmont along a weak band of mid-level frontogenesis.
How far south any QPF makes it into the Upstate remains uncertain.
At the same time, cold air will be arriving behind the boundary and
could allow some of this moisture to fall as light snow. If this
were to occur, accumulations would be minimal and generally less
than 1". Forecast confidence remains low to moderate right now
pending better model agreement and amount of moisture and cold air
to work with.


Key message 3: A brief round of mountain snow is possible Friday
night, otherwise temperatures return to seasonal averages through
the weekend.

The next feature of interest will be a strong clipper dropping out
of the Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday morning. There`s an
impressive slug of moisture with this system, moreso than we would
typically see with a clipper. Most of the precipitation will remain
well to our north, but a period of northwest flow snow showers will
be possible across the mountains along the immediate Tennessee
border Friday night. Will need to watch model trends and see how far
south sufficient moisture can make it as to the magnitude of
snowfall, if any, that may occur. Otherwise, temperatures finally
return to or just shy of seasonal averages for early February.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR continues tonight and most likely
through 00z Wed at the TAF terminals. Stratocu deck around FL050-070
already is diminishing east of the Appalachians (near KCLT and KHKY)
but may remain banked on the west side of the mountains for much
of the night. A few of those clouds could be seen at KAVL though
without forming a cig. Light NW winds continue at KAVL overnight
with mostly light SW to WSW winds elsewhere. High altitude cirrus
return early Tue morning and thicken/lower during the day; winds
back to SW at KAVL by afternoon. As moisture increases aloft, low
VFR clouds return to KAVL also in the afternoon but do not reach
the other sites until around 00z, with cigs and precip chances
thereafter. KCLT sees cig by 03z Wed but precip too unlikely to
mention this issuance.

Outlook: A cold front brings precipitation and restrictions
back Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Dry conditions return
Thursday into the weekend for most of the terminals, outside of some
northwest flow snow along the NC/TN border Friday night into early
Saturday morning. Gusty winds develop Friday in association with a
cold front and will linger across the mountains through Saturday,
but will gradually taper off east of the mountains Friday evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 02-02

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 1989     16 1908     52 1988     -2 1917
   KCLT      80 1989     29 1908     61 1923     10 1917
   KGSP      77 1989     28 1951     60 1923      9 1900

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/JCW/TW