924
FXUS62 KILM 061809
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
209 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing in a significant rain event this
weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) No impactful weather this week with high pressure keeping the
region dry and seasonable.

2) Unsettled weather may return this weekend with confidence
increasing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...No impactful weather this week with high pressure
keeping the region dry and seasonable.

Modified Canadian High pressure centered north of the area under
broad mid-level troughing will keep the region dry through at least
Fri. Temperatures slightly below normal today return near normal
Wed through the end of the week.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather may return this weekend with
confidence increasing.

Anticipated tropical activity well to the south and west will
interact with a large and quite moist atmospheric river moving
over the area to provide another good rain event this weekend.
Although still a few days out confidence is increasing with
development of a tropical system moving into the lower
Mississippi Valley with deep isentropic lift setting up over
our area late Saturday through Sunday. Total rainfall amounts
could be in a range of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts.
Temperatures will be somewhat above average citing the moisture
and there doesn`t appear to be much if any cold air advection
early next week when conditions dry out.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the period.

Extended Outlook...VFR through at least Friday evening, outside of
any patchy morning fog. Flight restrictions may return Saturday, but
confidence is low.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory conditions will persist across the waters
through tonight ceasing at 3 AM. The flow will generally remain
from the NE through the period although becoming very light by
Thursday. By very late in the period an east to southeast flow
develops ahead of the next system with small craft to gale
conditions possible. Significant seas will follow the winds with
4-6 feet this evening falling to 2-3 feet by Thursday with
another increase late in the period.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NCZ107.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...SHK
KEY MESSAGES...SHK
DISCUSSION...SHK
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...SHK