418
FXUS61 KCTP 011654
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1154 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and mild weather will continue until late Wednesday or
Wednesday night when we`ll likely see some rain showers followed
by slightly cooler weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and mild weather will continue until late
Wednesday or Wednesday night when we`ll likely see some rain
showers followed by slightly cooler weather.

Latest satellite images, observations and high res HREF
guidance all show light wind and variable amounts of mid and
high clouds.

This should remain the case for the est of today with almost no
low clouds/cu. More moisture streams into the SW zones of the
CWA Monday. A sprinkle isn`t out of the question over the N
Monday night - much like the very small and brief shower they
had two nights ago. We`ll keep the forecast at 0 PoP since there
is no risk of 0.01" accumulating. That isn`t great news for
northern PA where BFD only accumulated 0.85" through all of Oct,
and is currently on a run of 14 straight days without
measurable (0.01") rain.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region for the first
half of the week, helping to prolong our dry stretch and keeping
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for much of
week. Highs in the lower 70s are in store for all but the higher
elevations on Wed.

Chances for widespread rainfall return for the second half of
the week. Wed night is the earliest anyone will see precip as a
complex system develops over the middle of the country. There
is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the
upper air pattern and phasing of energy aloft that will decide
the development and progression of this system. The more
weighted/favored (per WPC) ECMWF solution yields only a brief
12-18hr window of precip as the cold front moves through (longer
in the eastern half of the CWA than over the west) Wed night
and Thurs. Cold air under a sharp trough could make the first
part of the weekend a little chilly and damp with instability
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are virtually certain through 08Z Monday with
just a BKN-OVC altocu and cirrus layer between FL080-FL250
through the forecast timeframe (with the greatest amount and
thickness of the clouds focused across far SW PA, where A few
temps may reach the 70-72F mark).

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...patchy AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday
and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more
likely in showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Bauco
AVIATION...Lambert/Beaty/Tyburski