365
FXUS61 KPHI 011811
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
111 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated. No significant forecast changes.

Issued frost advisory tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Some areas of frost again tonight. Otherwise, generally
tranquil weather is expected to prevail through the middle
portion of next week.

2. Rain chances are expected to return late this week into this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some areas of frost again tonight. Otherwise,
generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail through the
middle portion of next week.

High pressure will remain in place within the vicinity of our
area through the middle of next week with continuing mild and
dry conditions.

For the remainder of today, we`ll have a bit more in the way of
some high cloudiness around, but the winds will remain light
and temperatures will moderate a few degrees compared to
Saturday. Afternoon highs are forecast to be mostly in the low
to mid 60s.

For tonight, low temperatures will be similar to this morning`s
lows, except a few degrees higher along and north of I-78. The
current forecast is for low to mid 30s across interior PA and NJ
areas, and upper 30s to mid 40s for the urban corridor,
Delmarva, and coastal areas. So we anticipate some areas of
frost developing again tonight, mainly for our PA and NJ areas
outside of the urban corridor and immediate coast. Another Frost
Advisory has been issued for the same areas as last night.

Scattered to broken high cloud cover will persist into next
week despite surface high pressure. Temperatures are expected to
increase back to above normal values early next week, with
highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and milder overnights (no
frost/freeze potential). Dry weather is expected to persist
through the day Wednesday, when highs will reach well above
normal into the low to mid 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances are expected to return late this
week into this weekend.

The ridging that will be in place across the area for the
majority of the upcoming week will finally begin to break down
by Wednesday night into Thursday as a potent upper trough over
central portions of the US closes off and lifts northeastward
into portions of the Great Lakes, southern portions of Ontario
and Quebec, and perhaps northern New England late this week. As
this occurs, broad troughing is expected to take shape across
the eastern tier of the US, and a few lobes of upper level
energy will likely pivot through the region Thursday and into
the weekend. At the surface, low pressure centered over the
Midwest is expected to track northeastward as it weakens into
Thursday. After this time, there is considerable uncertainty.

At least broad low pressure looks to approach the area Thursday
into Friday coincident with the period of greatest height falls
across the region. This is expected to bring rain chances back
to the region, potentially as early as Wednesday night, but more
likely Thursday into Friday. For right now, PoPs are in the
50-60% range for most of the area during this time period. With
a lack of stronger forcing and little to no instability, this
looks most likely to be just a beneficial wetting rain to the
region.

Heading into this weekend, ensemble guidance indicates negative
H5 anomalies and generally lowered surface pressure across the
region. This indicates that the pattern may remain a bit
unsettled through Saturday before drier and cooler air begins to
work into the region by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. Winds out of the southwest 5 kts or less.
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds less than 5 kts favoring a southwest
direction. Winds may become calm at times. High confidence.

Monday...VFR. Winds out of the southwest 5 kts or less. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday night through Friday...Rain will be possible at times
with restrictions possible.


&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards through Monday. Light/variable winds 5 kts or
less tonight become southwest around 10 kts Monday. Seas 1-3
feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday night...No marine headlines
currently anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5
feet.

Thursday through Friday...Advisory conditions possible with
southeast winds increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts approaching 25
kt and seas increasing to 3-5 feet. Visibility restrictions
possible at times in rain.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday for
     PAZ102-104-106.
NJ...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday for
     NJZ016>018-021-023.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/Fitzsimmons/RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...Cooper/RCM
MARINE...Cooper/RCM