406
FXUS61 KBGM 011735
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1235 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances for precipitation were added for portions of Central NY on
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected through Midweek.

2) There is potential for widespread rain chances Thursday into
Friday as a frontal system moves through. Temperatures will trend
cooler into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Conditions will be warm and mostly dry to kick off the work week
thanks to a ridge of high pressure present over the region. First
though, temperatures will dip down into the 30s and 40s tonight with
areas more west staying a bit more moderate due to increasing cloud
cover. After the cool start Monday morning, temperatures will climb
into the 60s and low 70s. Temperatures will trend warmer through
midweek with warm days and mild nights.

While conditions will be rain-free for most during the first half of
the week, showers cannot be ruled out on Tuesday. A surface low
pressure system will develop over the Midwest late Monday. Extending
from the low will be a warm front that partially lifts through the
region. Depending on the placement of the front, some passing
showers will be possible during the day on Tuesday, mainly across
northern portions of Central NY. With enough moisture, most models
are showing some showers though the short range guidance are coming
in with wider coverage. Given this, slight chance PoPs were added to
areas north of the Southern Tier for now. Model trends will need to
be monitored over the next few forecast cycles.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned surface low will push a cold front through the
region late in the week. Showers will move in on Thursday and
continue into Friday. The front may not fully depart the region as a
another low pressure system forms over the Atlantic. As this low
moves through, moisture will get advected inland and showers will
linger into the Weekend. A dry slot will also move into the region
and this could help keep some locations dry while others have a
rainy start to the weekend.

Following the frontal system, temperatures will trend cooler into
the weekend. Even so, temperatures will generally remain above
average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours (at least
through 18Z Monday). Fog is unlikely tonight/early Monday
morning due to drier air and clouds moving in from the west.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Scattered showers may bring
occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...BJG