457
FXUS61 KCLE 061730
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
130 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There are no impactful changes with this morning`s forecast
update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The nice fall weather pattern will continue through this
week with warmer and above average temperatures expected later
this week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The current weather pattern over the Upper Ohio Valley and
Lower Great Lakes region is a general west-northwest flow aloft.
This pattern will continue to favor a mostly dry forecast with
occasional wind shifts or weak cold fronts passing through which
will seesaw our temperatures at times later this week. High
pressure over the region is bringing fair skies this morning and
some cool temperatures, especially away from the lake. Today
will be sunny with high temperatures very close to our early
October seasonal averages ranging from the lower 60s for NWPA,
middle 60s for NEOH, and upper 60s for NWOH. It will not be as
cool tonight with areas inland in the mid to upper 40s. High
pressure will exit eastward tomorrow and southwest winds will
increase 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph during the
afternoon. High temps on Wednesday will get an added boost and
reach the lower to upper 70s across the area.

A weak and dry cold front will move across late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning which will knock our temps back down
slightly. Another area of high pressure and quiet weather will
move down across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the end of
the week. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will range from
the mid 60s to low 70s. There will be a shift in our weather
pattern with slight upper level ridging developing over the
region by the weekend. Temperatures will warm back up Saturday
and Sunday into the 70s areawide. There may be a couple
locations that try to reach the 80 degree over NWOH this
weekend. The next chance of rain may arrive late Sunday into
Monday with a remnant tropical system or low pressure system coming
from the Gulf Coast region. It may brush by with some rainfall
for our area. There is alot of uncertainty at this time with the
forecast that far out. In the meantime, enjoy the great weather
this week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure drifts
into the Mid Atlantic region. This will allow a warm front to
lift across the area tonight followed by an approaching cold
front by Wednesday afternoon, but only scattered high to mid-
level clouds are expected with the cold front. The main impact
will be increasing winds. Light S to SW winds areawide this
afternoon will allow a lake breeze to impact KCLE and KERI at
times before S to SW winds increase to 5-10 knots tonight and
10-15 knots by Wednesday morning while becoming SW. The SW winds
will gust to 20-25 knots at times late Wednesday morning through
the afternoon.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions are expected most of this
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine weather and conditions will be relatively quiet for
today as high pressure tracks across Lake Erie this morning.
There is a notable land breeze that has develop overnight and
is located mainly over the open waters this early morning. The
land breeze may persist through sunrise before it fades away.
Winds will become southerly to southwesterly today 5 to 10 knots
and waves around a foot. Southwest winds will increase 15 to 25
knots tonight into Wednesday ahead of the next cold front
tracking through the Great Lakes. There will likely be the need
for an additional Small Craft Advisory tonight into at least
early afternoon Wednesday. Winds will shift from the northwest
10 to 15 knots behind the cold front Wednesday night and
continue through Thursday evening. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet
behind the front. High pressure will build over Lake Erie for
the end of the week and into the weekend with westerly to
southerly winds 5 to 12 knots Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...77