990
FXUS61 KPBZ 061714
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
114 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update to Key Messages.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and quiet conditions are expected through early Sunday,
with rain chances potentially returning late Sunday into Monday
with a tropical disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mostly quiet and dry conditions are expected through early
Sunday. A cold front will pass through the region early
Thursday. Through measurable precipitation chances remain low
with the front, generally less than 30%, given shallow boundary
layer moisture and weak forcing. Low-level clouds will most
likely make an appearance. The front should clear the Laurel
Highlands between 8am and 11am Thursday morning.

Rain chances could increase late Sunday into Monday as the
remnants of a potential tropical disturbance develops over the
southwest Gulf and moves north. Should this scenario
materialize, portions of the region could receive an inch to an
inch and half of rain within an area of enhanced convergence.
Precipitation amounts will also heavily depend on the size and
track of the low, with a potential rain shadow developing as
easterly flow crosses over the ridges and promotes subsidence,
limiting rainfall amounts between Pittsburgh and the Laurel
Highlands.

The threat for moderate to heavy rainfall should diminish late
Monday if the system tracks into our region, becomes absorbed
into stronger upper-level flow over Ontario, and a trough
builds over the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure ensures VFR with light wind through Wednesday
morning. Approaching shortwave and surface front will increase
winds out of the southwest aft 15z Wednesday, with occasional
gusts to 20kts.

A few CU and cirrus may pass (mainly over northwest
PA) through the TAF period as well, mainly Wednesday
afternoon/evening.

Outlook...
A weak, mostly dry cold front crossing Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning could induce a period of MVFR cigs favoring
northwest PA. Outside of that and varying chances for morning
river valley steam fog, VFR is favored through the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hefferan
AVIATION...Frazier