132
FXUS61 KPHI 011745
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1245 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for 18Z TAFs. Issued frost advisory
tonight. Tweaked key message 1 and marine section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Some areas of frost again tonight. Otherwise, generally
tranquil weather is expected to prevail through the middle
portion of next week.

2. Rain is expected to return late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Some areas of frost again tonight. Otherwise,
generally tranquil weather is expected to prevail through the
middle portion of next week.

High pressure will remain in place within the vicinity of our
area through the middle of next week with continuing mild and
dry conditions.

For the remainder of today, we`ll have a bit more in the way of
some high cloudiness around, but the winds will remain light
and temperatures will moderate a few degrees compared to
Saturday. Afternoon highs are forecast to be mostly in the low
to mid 60s.

For tonight, low temperatures will be similar to this morning`s
lows, except a few degrees higher along and north of I-78. The
current forecast is for low to mid 30s across interior PA and NJ
areas, and upper 30s to mid 40s for the urban corridor,
Delmarva, and coastal areas. So we anticipate some areas of
frost developing again tonight, mainly for our PA and NJ areas
outside of the urban corridor and immediate coast. Another Frost
Advisory has been issued for the same areas as last night.

Scattered to broken high cloud cover will persist into next
week despite surface high pressure. Temperatures are expected to
increase back to above normal values early next week, with
highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and milder overnights (no
frost/freeze potential). Dry weather is expected to persist
through the day Wednesday, when highs will reach well above
normal into the low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain is expected to return late in the week.

The stretch of dry weather is expected to come to an end late
this week. It appears increasingly likely that a period or
periods of rainfall will move into the area as a storm system
affects the region Thursday through at least Friday. Early in
the week, a cold front will be moving across the central part of
the country. The parent low moves across the Great Lakes and
into Canada later in the week, while a secondary low develops
and moves into the southern states by mid week. This low is
expected to strengthen as it moves into the Mid Atlantic and
northeast states later in the week, bringing our area a likely
window to end our dry streak.

Forecast details remain uncertain since this is still several
days away, but at this point the best chances for rain appear
to be late day Thursday into the day Friday. At this time, this
appears it will be a beneficial rainfall event with no
significant weather hazards anticipated, but it will have to be
watched closely as there is potential for amounts to be on the
heavier side depending on how much Atlantic moisture is pulled
into the system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. Winds out of the southwest 5 kts or less.
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds less than 5 kts favoring a southwest
direction. Winds may become calm at times. High confidence.

Monday...VFR. Winds out of the southwest 5 kts or less. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Thursday...Next chance for rain arrives with the potential for
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards through Monday. Light/variable winds 5 kts or
less tonight become southwest around 10 kts Monday. Seas 1-3
feet. Fair weather.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...No marine hazards expected.
Fair weather.

Thursday...Winds and seas may build close to advisory levels,
along with a chance of rain.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday for
     PAZ102-104-106.
NJ...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Monday for
     NJZ016>018-021-023.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...RCM/Staarmann