488
FXUS64 KOUN 011715
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1115 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Areas of fog will continue into Sunday morning.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Monday
  afternoon through Monday night with a threat for large hail,
  damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

- Near-normal temperatures will arrive by the middle part of the
  week with cooler nighttime temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Patchy drizzle and fog will continue early this morning with the
potential for some dense fog as we approach sunrise. Will continue
to monitor for this potential. Otherwise, expect any drizzle to
quickly end Sunday morning with some fog lingering into the mid-
morning hours. Skies will remain cloudy through much of the day,
although some breaks may occur across south-central, southeast into
portions of central Oklahoma by afternoon. Even with the cloudy
conditions, the south winds along with the lack of rainfall should
result in warmer temperatures across the area by afternoon(70s to
near 80).

As the upper low over inter-mountain west and the lead sub-tropical
wave lifts east and northeast tonight, lee troughing(cyclogenesis)
will occur, which will result increasing south winds Sunday night.
As the lead wave moves into the panhandles after midnight, a few
showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across western
and northwestern Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

The aforementioned cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining low level
jet through the day Monday. This will also assist in advecting mid
60 dewpoints northward into western north Texas and southwest,
central and eastern parts of Oklahoma during the day. Many of the
models also shift the dryline further east through much of western
Oklahoma compared to earlier runs. The lead wave may be responsible
for this faster movement. The NAM being an exception holding the
dryline closer the 100th meridian until late in the day.

The lead wave will also provide sufficient lift for some isolated to
widely scattered activity through the morning and into the
afternoon. This may limit instability to some degree at least
through midday into the early afternoon hours, but as we go through
afternoon the probability for severe storms will increase.

As the main upper low moves across the panhandles and into western
Oklahoma by Monday afternoon expect more robust storms to develop
along the dryline and then move east and northeast. There remains
differences in the models with regards to location of the dryline as
well as low level wind directions and boundary layer thermal
profiles that could play a significant role, especially in the
tornado potential across central into northern Oklahoma late
Monday afternoon and evening. That being said, we do anticipate as
initial convective development occurs, supercells will be
possible with the potential for damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and
large hail. This should give way to more linear line segments as
we go through the evening with embedded supercells with mainly
damaging wind gusts as well as the potential for QLCS tornadoes.
All this activity will move east during the evening and overnight
with severe potential lingering toward sunrise in the southeast.

Another aspect with this activity will be the potential for heavy
rainfall. Although expect the activity to move rather quickly off
to the northeast, the near record PWATs in place and a deep layer
of nearly parallel winds to the surface boundary may lead to some
isolated heavy rainfall.

Also, associated cold front will sweep south and east across the
area on Tuesday, bringing a somewhat cooler, drier airmass into
Oklahoma and western north Texas. After a day with highs in the
upper 70s and low/mid 80s Monday, Tuesday will see highs from the
middle 60s in the northwest to the middle 70s in the southeast with
a brisk northeast wind.

The upper low takes a more northern track than previous forecast as
we go through the day Tuesday, which should limit any wrap-around
precip impacting the area. The drier air will especially impact
overnight lows as temperatures fall into the 40s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

More tranquil weather expected for Wednesday with slightly warmer
than normal temperatures and light winds. Models then show a weaker
shortwave coming out of the central Rockies into the Plains
Wednesday night and Thursday. A few showers may occur on Thursday,
but the models show the wave weakening as it moves across the area.
May end up with mainly an increase in clouds across the northern
half of the area during the day, cooling temperatures there by a
degree or two from previous day.

Northwest flow then develops as we approach the weekend with the
potential for a few shortwave diving south through the central and
southern Plains. Model differences increase by this time with regards
to the strength of these individual wave and the potential for
additional precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

MVFR-to-IFR category continues to rapidly lessen across the
region as stratus slowly erodes (or ceiling heights rise). More
persistent MVFR conditions are possible through the day and
tonight at KCSM/KWWR.

Chances for rain/thunder return after 09Z/Monday as previous
activity across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles moves into
portions of western and northern Oklahoma. Gusty/erratic winds and
reduced vis will be possible with this activity. Though
uncertainty remains how long this activity lasts prior to
dissipating after sunrise on Monday, included PROB30 mentions as
far east as the I-35 corridor in northern Oklahoma.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  62  77  56 /  10   0  70  70
Hobart OK         75  64  82  55 /   0  10  50  10
Wichita Falls TX  80  64  83  56 /   0   0  60  40
Gage OK           70  61  79  50 /   0  60  30  10
Ponca City OK     73  61  78  55 /   0  10  80  70
Durant OK         80  63  84  61 /   0   0  20 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09