775
FXUS64 KTSA 122340
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances continue through tonight and early Sunday.

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at
   least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 48
   hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more
   rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue
   during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Elevated convection continues across parts of the area early this
afternoon. Expect a gradual weakening trend with this activity
through the afternoon, but some potential for damaging downburst
winds will continue until the storms dissipate.

Attention will then turn towards a potential storm complex that
may develop across northwest Oklahoma and southwest Kansas late
this afternoon and early this evening. If this complex forms, it
will likely track east into parts of northeast Oklahoma and
possibly far northwest Arkansas late this evening and overnight. A
limited potential for severe storms with damaging winds will exist
with this complex overnight. Overnight low temperatures will range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Showers and storms may linger into Sunday morning across far
northwest Arkansas before ending. A strong upper ridge will then
build over the area and persist through at least the middle of
next week with the center of the ridge just to our east. Dangerous
heat will return Sunday through at least the middle of next week,
with daily heat headlines expected. A heat advisory has been
issued for Sunday afternoon for much of eastern Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas.

Shower and thunderstorm chances may increase by late week as a
cold front approaches from the north. The timing of this front
remains somewhat uncertain, but it does appear that a more
significant cooldown may take place by sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm activity through the
period. The latest CAM guidance suggests that storms over far NW
OK could cluster and come east across northern OK overnight and
perhaps into far NW AR toward early Sunday morning. Confidence is
not super high, but both CAM models show some storm activity
spreading in from the west so have maintained the prob30s from
previous forecast and just adjusted the time window back a few
hours to be more in line with latest guidance. Did insert some
wind gust potential per HRRR.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74 101  78 100 /  20   0  10   0
FSM   75 103  76 102 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   75 102  77 101 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   70 100  71 100 /  40  10  10   0
FYV   69  98  70  98 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   71  96  72  96 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   72 102  74 101 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   70  97  73  99 /  40  10  10   0
F10   72 102  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   74 101  75 101 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     070-071-073>075-176-272.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-
     055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
     276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30