490
FXUS64 KTSA 161731
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

 - Low-medium thunderstorm chances continue Thursday and again
   Friday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
   possible with any stronger storms. Severe weather not expected.

 - Drier and hotter conditions return by this weekend into early
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected yet again this
afternoon, albeit with less coverage than Wednesday. While low
PoPs will exist areawide, greatest storm coverage is expected
across S OK this afternoon. Here, ongoing convection in TX is
forecast to move north into the area with new development possible
as it enters SE/S-Central OK. These storms will continue to
expand northward toward NE OK before diminishing by late evening.
As has been the case, severe weather is not expected, but locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible. Faster storm
motions should reduce the flash flood threat compared to
yesterday. While mostly dry conditions are expected overnight, a
few showers cannot be ruled out as another area of vorticity
(associated with the mid- upper low) passes over the area. Low
temperatures will be similar to Wednesday night...perhaps a couple
degrees warmer...in the lower-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The area will be in the western fringes of high pressure by
Friday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
again, though coverage should lessen somewhat as heights begin to
increase. In general, 15-30 percent PoPs were maintained areawide
Friday afternoon and early evening. Precipitation likely
concludes with loss of daytime heating. Mid-upper level ridging
strengthens through the weekend with increasing S-SW sfc flow
providing increasing temperatures. Once dewpoint values are
factored in, heat indices are forecast to again exceed 100-105
degrees for parts of the area early next week. A few model
solutions try to bring a shortwave and associated frontal boundary
close to the area by mid next week, which could result in
slightly lower temperatures and perhaps additional precipitation
chances. However, even in these scenarios, ridging stays close by
and any reprieve may be short lived. The latest NBM keeps PoPs
below mentionable levels with high temperatures in the mid-upper
90s during this time, which seems reasonable for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Scattered showers have expanded through south central OK and are
expected to expand further north and east through the afternoon.
Overall coverage through the afternoon seems best handled by
probability groups with adjustments as needed for short term
trends. VFR conditions will prevail outside of influences from
heavier convection. Storms diminish after sunset with low
confidence in any placement of overnight fog potential. Showers
and storms on Friday more likely beyond this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  91  76  95 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   73  93  75  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   73  91  75  93 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   71  90  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
FYV   70  89  72  91 /  10  20  10  10
BYV   70  89  72  92 /  10  20  10  10
MKO   72  89  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   71  89  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
F10   71  89  73  92 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   72  89  73  92 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07