975
FXUS64 KTSA 121809
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
109 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - Thunderstorm chances continue through tonight and early Sunday.

 - Unseasonably hot temperatures continue this weekend through at
   least the middle of next week. Expect heat headlines at times.

 - While much of the region has received rainfall over the past 48
   hours, the ongoing drought conditions will require much more
   rainfall for improvement. Fire weather concerns will continue
   during periods of stronger winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Elevated convection continues across parts of the area early this
afternoon. Expect a gradual weakening trend with this activity
through the afternoon, but some potential for damaging downburst
winds will continue until the storms dissipate.

Attention will then turn towards a potential storm complex that
may develop across northwest Oklahoma and southwest Kansas late
this afternoon and early this evening. If this complex forms, it
will likely track east into parts of northeast Oklahoma and
possibly far northwest Arkansas late this evening and overnight. A
limited potential for severe storms with damaging winds will exist
with this complex overnight. Overnight low temperatures will range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Showers and storms may linger into Sunday morning across far
northwest Arkansas before ending. A strong upper ridge will then
build over the area and persist through at least the middle of
next week with the center of the ridge just to our east. Dangerous
heat will return Sunday through at least the middle of next week,
with daily heat headlines expected. A heat advisory has been
issued for Sunday afternoon for much of eastern Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas.

Shower and thunderstorm chances may increase by late week as a
cold front approaches from the north. The timing of this front
remains somewhat uncertain, but it does appear that a more
significant cooldown may take place by sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Morning convection has nearly passed NE OK terminals leaving some
scattered low clouds and occasional broken mid clouds from KTUL
to KFSM this afternoon. Outflow is slowing from Tulsa to near
Fayetteville and is expected to wash out with winds returning to
the light southeast or remaining variable through the afternoon.
VFR conditions expected to persist with a low risk of additional
storms impacting northwest AR sites later this afternoon though we
will need to watch western end of boundary near KTUL/KRVS for
redevelopment as well. Additional, more organized storms are
expected to develop across northern OK/southern KS toward 00Z Sun
and spread east mainly impacting northern OK and northwest AR
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74 101  78 100 /  20   0  10   0
FSM   75 103  76 102 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   75 102  77 101 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   70 100  71 100 /  40  10  10   0
FYV   69  98  70  98 /  20  20  10   0
BYV   71  96  72  96 /  20  30  10  10
MKO   72 102  74 101 /  10   0  10   0
MIO   70  97  73  99 /  40  10  10   0
F10   72 102  75 100 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   74 101  75 101 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-065-066-
     070-071-073>075-176-272.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-
     055>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-
     276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-220-
     229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24