257
FXUS64 KTSA 011752
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1152 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - High shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday into
   Tuesday, with potential for severe weather and locally heavy
   rain.

 - Temperatures closer to seasonal average mid to late week behind
   early week system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Cloudy and dreary conditions this morning will gradually improve
into the afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds across eastern
Oklahoma noted on current satellite imagery. With some breaks,
temperatures should rise into the low to mid 70s by later this
afternoon, with dry conditions persisting through the rest of the
day. Southerly surface winds will begin to pick up some overnight
tonight in response to a developing surface low deepening over the
High Plains. This will keep fog chances minimal tonight and
confined to the highly sheltered valley locations. Overnight lows
will also stay well above average for early November, generally
in the 60s areawide. Any precipitation should stay west of the
local region through tonight.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The main impact through the extended forecast period continues to
be a threat for severe weather along with heavy rainfall Monday
into Tuesday. A bit of a complicated scenario looks to unfold
on Monday across eastern Oklahoma in terms of the severe weather
threat across the area. A potent upper low will move through the
Intermountain West today and eject out into the Plains through the
day Monday. At the same time, this upper low will link up with a
subtropical jet and moisture plume streaming northeastward out of
the eastern Pacific and into Southern and Central Plains. recent
guidance and model trends don`t phase these two systems very well,
with the subtropical system progressing out ahead of the main wave
into eastern Oklahoma by Monday late morning or early afternoon.
Deepening tropical moisture and favorable jet location over the
region provides a pretty good signal for scattered to widespread elevated
thunderstorm development within this leading wave from late
Monday morning into the afternoon hours, primarily along and west
of Highway 75 in northeast Oklahoma. As mentioned, most of this
activity will likely be elevated, which will limit the severe
threat, though some stronger storms could have some gusty winds or
small hail through the afternoon. Instability continues to be
pretty limited, so the hail threat will stay minimal through the
period. How this activity evolves will play a big role in what and
where the biggest severe threat will be during the evening and
overnight as the main wave and associated cold front/dryline move
through the area.

If more widespread early day convection develops and lingers
through the afternoon, that will limit the severe threat across
parts of eastern Oklahoma for later in the day Monday. The primary
forcing associated with the stronger upper low will overtake the
surface cold front by late afternoon or early evening Monday from
western to central Oklahoma. Increasing coverage of thunderstorms
is expected as this occurs, likely growing upscale into a QLCS as
it approaches eastern Oklahoma by mid to late evening. The severe
threat again will be highly conditional on the activity earlier
in the day. Where there is less coverage early in the day, the
greater the severe threat through the evening. Meager, but
sufficient instability combined with strong deep layer shear will
support organized updrafts capable of damaging wind gusts along
with some tornado potential, as low level shear increases through
the evening. Large hail seems to be less of a threat given the
forecast profiles and expected linear storm mode. The line of
storms will track eastward overnight through early morning
Tuesday. Instability looks to weaken after midnight as the line
moves east, likely signaling a slight downtrend as storms approach
western Arkansas. Low level shear will remain strong however, so
some isolated severe and tornado potential will continue into
those areas as well. In addition to the severe threat, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding could be a concern with the tropical
moisture in place. The greatest area of concern looks to be
northeast Oklahoma where multiple round of convection are
possible. Rain rates of one to two inches per hour will be common
in any thunderstorms which could affect more flood prone locations
such as urban corridors or low lying areas near small creeks or
streams.

Of secondary concern on Monday will be strong wind gusts during
the day as the pressure gradient responds to the deepening
surface low lifting into the Central Plains. Winds gusts of 30 to
40mph will be common and a wind advisory could potentially be
needed for parts of the area, but will hold off on issuance for
now. The cold frontal passage on Tuesday will usher in cooler and
breezy conditions in its wake. Temperatures will trend closer to
normal ranges through the rest of the of the forecast period,
though likely still above normal for most of the area. Still, some
cooler mornings and drier air will dominate through the work
week. A quick moving, weakening wave will move through the area on
Thursday. This could bring a few light showers to the area, but
dry air will keep chances minimal with this system. Another system
could affect the area toward the latter half of next weekend.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions in low clouds and fog will improve to
MVFR at all sites by late morning and then to VFR this afternoon.
Conditions will then remain VFR for the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   73  60  77  58 /   0   0  50  90
FSM   74  61  80  65 /   0   0  10  80
MLC   76  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  90
BVO   71  55  74  54 /   0   0  70  90
FYV   72  54  73  57 /   0  10  10  90
BYV   71  60  73  63 /   0   0  10  80
MKO   74  59  80  60 /   0   0  20  90
MIO   72  58  76  59 /   0   0  40  90
F10   75  59  78  57 /  10   0  40  80
HHW   77  61  82  63 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05