610
FXUS63 KBIS 192143
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
443 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures through the rest of the week
  over most locations. Possible record setting, especially over
  western and southern locations.

- Dry through remainder of work week, with precipitation chances
  returning Saturday/Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures to start the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 442 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across
southwestern North Dakota through the late afternoon.
For tonight, the ongoing melting of snowpack lingering across the
north central into eastern North Dakota and lighter winds could
allow for another round of patchy fog to develop tonight into
Thursday morning.

Similar conditions are expected to persist Friday and Saturday as
broad ridging persists across the Northern Plains, with highs into
the 60s and 70s and gusty west to northwest winds in the afternoon.
The winds are expected to become more widespread on Saturday, as a
cold front is progged to dip south across the region some time
during the day. Ensemble members remain a little split on the timing
of the front, though notably less so than the previous forecast
cycles. A slower moving front is currently favored by a majority of
ensemble members (60% of them), which will allow for highs across
the north to remain broadly in the 50s and 60s through Saturday
afternoon. The slower solution would also delay the onset of lighter
precipitation (20 to 40 percent chance) on Saturday to the afternoon
and evening, which would favor a rain-snow mix across the north.
This scenario is reflected in the NBM. A minority cluster also
exists (approximately 40 percent of the ensemble members), which
still champions a faster moving front, corresponding to a scenario
that would promote cooler highs in the 30s and 40s across the north.
The cooler temperatures in that scenario, and the early onset of
precipitation, would allow more snowfall across the north in that
case. Overall the precipitation amounts should be light, with only a
light dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow (highest in the
Turtle Mountains) anticipated at this time.

Cooler, more seasonable temperatures are expected on Sunday on the
back side of the cold front, with highs from the lower 30s north
central to the upper 40s in the southwest. A return to southwesterly
flow aloft late Sunday through early next week will return the
forecast to a dry and warming pattern. The degree of warming is
still a little uncertain as the ensembles struggle to resolve the
breakdown of the ridge ahead of a decent wave moving in later in the
week. With this wave, chances for precipitation and gusty winds are
anticipated, though the location and degree of either remain
uncertain this far ahead of time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR ceilings and visibility is mainly expected throughout the
18Z TAF period. Patchy fog and MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected
to develop tonight through Thursday morning in the north central
and eastern North Dakota where melting snowpack can be found.
Have added MVFR ceilings to KJMS, though confidence is too low
to include visibility reductions due to fog at this time. Gusty
west winds are expected through this afternoon, with sustained
speeds up to 25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots. Winds should
diminish through the evening, becoming light and variable
overnight.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJS
AVIATION...Adam