999
FXUS63 KBIS 060539
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for snow far southwest tonight.

- Gusty southerly winds Tuesday with rain and snow developing
  Tuesday night.

- Gusty winds become northwesterly on Wednesday, with chances
  low to medium chances for rain and snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 947 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Only a few minor updates tonight. In the southwest we modified
the area of slight chance pops. Limiting it a little compared to
the previous forecast, based on a blend of short term model
guidance. Limited the slight chance pops to Bowman and portions
of slope and Adams counties. We updated sky cover base on
latest satellite imagery and incoming short term guidance. At
least for a period late this evening there is a pretty good
area of clear skies over western and central ND. Updated text
products will be transmitted shortly.


UPDATE Issued at 547 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

No significant changes to the early evening update. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies with breezy northwest winds. Winds will
diminish early to mid evening. Temperatures fall into the 20s to
lower 30s by late this evening. Updated text products will be
transmitted shortly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Current surface analysis places trough/front settling through
the upper midwest and high pushing through the Canadian prairie
provinces into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places
trough over the Great Lakes region and ridge over the western
CONUS. Over our area, fast northwesterly flow remains in place.
Gusty northwesterly winds continue in the wake of a cold front
that passed through earlier today.

For tonight, winds will diminish, but a weak disturbance moves
through overnight, mainly over the southwest. CAMs have been hit
and miss with bringing some light precipitation into our area,
so have painted in some low snow chances over the far
southwest.

Quiet weather is expected Monday as surface high slides through
the area. Tuesday into Wednesday is when our next system is
forecast to move through. Windy conditions are expected Tuesday
as a warm front lifts through the area, but some question as to
how far east the warmer air can make it. Either way a notable
warm-up is expected, especially west. Latest guidance suggests
the strongest winds will be over central North Dakota, with
advisory level winds possible. Precipitation spreads into the
area in earnest Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper low
approaches the region with cold front dropping through Wednesday
with winds shifting northwest. This again will result in windy
conditions, with winds probably even stronger than Tuesday.

Thereafter we end up with split-flow to the west while our area
starts out with northwest flow behind the departing system,
becoming more westerly this weekend. Occasional low to medium
chances for precipitation enter the forecast with the westerly
flow, along with moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

There is a narrow strip of low VFR/MVFR stratus in northeastern
ND gradually drifting southwest. This may briefly impact KJMS
within the next couple hours before eroding. Otherwise, VFR
ceilings and visibility are expected through the period. One
other note is that breezy southeasterly winds will develop in
western ND Monday evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Telken