107
FXUS62 KMHX 020524
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1224 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winter Storm Warning has been replaced with a Winter Weather
Advisory through 11 AM Monday.

Wind Advisory was cancelled early. No more land-based wind
headlines.

Coastal Flood Warning has been replace with a Coastal Flood
Advisory through midnight tonight for the Northern Outer Banks,
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands.

Coastal Flood Warning has expired for East Carteret County.

Coastal Flood Advisory has expired for Pamlico and Southern
Craven Counties.

Marine Headlines have all been converted to Small Craft
Advisories.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) C-O-L-D. Minimum Temperature records will be threatened for
the next few days.

2) Travel will remain treacherous.

3) A couple of weak weather systems will push across the region
Tuesday night through Thursday bringing light to occasional
moderate rain across the region, potentially changing over to
snow Wednesday night and Thursday.

MARINE...Conditions improve but are still hazardous as a strong low
pressure system departs to the NE off the NC coast. Gale
conditions currently will slowly step down. Wave are at their
peak heights of 10-20 feet for coastal waters and will improve
as winds fall out.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Extremely cold air will stick around behind the
winter storm with the potential to set additional new record
low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings. Lows are currently
forecast to be in the single digit range for a bulk of the
mainland area, and 10-20F along the immediate coast and OBX
Monday morning. The areas that don`t see single digit MinTs will
be due to wind, which will make the wind chill values approach
the zero degree, and perhaps subzero range, in the early
morning hours. High temperatures for most will be below freezing
today and a little above freezing on Monday, but it`s possible
some inland areas to remain below freezing into Tuesday. Wind
chills are currently in the teens across the area. Temps and
wind chill will crater after sunset, expected to reach zero or
below zero by sunrise, making for a gelid start to the
workweek. Because of this, Extreme Cold Warning remains in
effect for the bulk of the FA, with Cold Weather Advisory in
effect for areas not covered by the EC.W.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant impacts from the departing winter
storm continue, with travel being extremely treacherous. Travel
impacts will continue for many days, as melting snow Monday
onwards will refreeze each night bringing a risk of black ice
and slippery conditions on a lot of roads, bridges, and
walkways.

Potential Life Threatening Situations: The combination of these
hazards will make travel dangerous and could lead to life
threatening situations if motorists become stranded due to the
extreme cold temperatures coming overnight and in the early
morning hours.

A coastal flood advisory is in effect from Ocracoke north
through Hatteras to the NOBX for a threat for 1-2 ft inundation
above ground level as ocean overwash remains possible with
strong wave action still battering the coast. We have had
reports of overwash freezing, further adding to hazardous
travel.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A dampening northern stream shortwave and
attendant cold front will approach the area Tuesday night and
push across the area Wednesday bringing a cold rain across the
region. Temps may drop to near freezing Tuesday evening but will
warm into the mid 30s to low 40s after midnight as clouds
increase with model soundings showing a warm nose centered
around 925 mb, so p-type is expected to remain rain with this
initial shortwave. A more pronounced shortwave will push across
the region Wednesday night and Thursday continuing precip
chances across the region, although moisture will be limited and
expect mainly widely scattered showers. CAA will be continuing
with nly winds behind the front and the p-type is expected to
change over to snow, however, QPF amounts will be light and most
guidance shows little (less than 1") to no additional
accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds in place
through Monday night, and expect such conditions to continue
into Tuesday.

Outlook: Conditions likely remaining VFR into Tuesday night,
although there is a low end potential (10% chance) of some
shallow fog to form Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as
southwesterly winds bring some relatively moist air into
the region. Expansive snowpack over ENC should help cool down
this moist air mass on top of it, with large uncertainty on if
it cools enough to reach saturation. As a worst case scenario
could see a combination of sea fog with the SW flow over cool
waters coming onshore in addition to radiational fog away from
the coast late Tuesday. Another weak weather system will push
across the area Wednesday into early Thursday that may produce
sub- VFR conditions in predominantly light rain with some
potential for some light snow as well.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong low pressure system will continue to produce dangerous
marine conditions through tonight. Winds have now weakened below
gale force but seas are holding at a dangerous 10-15 ft, 6-9
feet in Onslow Bay. SCA continues for all waters except the
inland rivers.

Outlook: Conditions will slowly improve tonight with winds
forecast to drop below SCA criteria by Monday afternoon. 6+ ft
seas may linger into Tuesday morning. Another system is set to
impact the area late week, deteriorating marine conditions yet
again.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for 02/02 (Monday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       19   1980  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  20   1977  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     12   1971  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Kinston        13   1980  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   16   1980  (NCA ASOS)

Record Low temps for 02/03 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       15   1980  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  15   1917  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville     9    1917  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Kinston        12   1980  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   18   1980  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ204-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SK/CEB
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...CEB