709
FXUS62 KRAH 011754
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1254 PM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Lowered shower and QFP chances, and warmed temperatures mid-week
  through the weekend. What else is new?

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 125 AM Sunday...

1) Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and abundant high
clouds the rest of this weekend.

2) Chance of showers from late Wednesday night through Friday night
or Saturday. Continued very warm mid through late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 125 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Seasonable temperatures, dry weather and abundant
high clouds the rest of this weekend.

S and SW flow ahead of a mid-level short wave trough currently over
the central plains will spread abundant mid and high clouds across
our area through the rest of the weekend.  But it will remain dry
given the stable low levels and relative minimum in pwat and low
level dwpts.  The current airmass will support highs within a few
deg of seasonal averages.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance of showers from late Wednesday night through
Friday night or Saturday. Continued very warm from mid through late
week. A bit cooler (but still above normal temperatures).

There is a chance of showers starting Wednesday night in the west,
then progressing NE over our region Thursday and Thursday night.
However, confidence remains low given the spread in the models and
the seemingly endless "kicking the can" down the road on days 5-7.
Even a week ago, models (we) were advertising increasing shower
chances on days 5-7. Yet, it has yet to verify. This next chance of
showers is advertised as a large spoke of energy tracks NE across
there region during Thursday with the main upper trough well to our
NW over the Midwest at that time. Thus, this forecast will likely
continue to be refined over time as models further adjust on the
timing and strength of the energy this far SE at that time.
Regardless, the SE upper ridge shifts just offshore. The south to
southwest flow ahead of the trough upstream will keep temperatures a
good 10-15 degrees (if not more) above normal Wednesday through
Friday. Lows around 60 and highs in the mid to upper 70s is more
typical of early September.

Then, all bets are off for the weekend as the models give and take.
Right now it appears that the main dynamics of the next upper trough
will again pass to our west and north this weekend, meaning low
chances of showers and continued warmth, but only 5-8 degrees above
normal instead of 15.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Sunday...

Considerable mid and high-level clouds and VFR ceilings will be
accompanied by virga and persist through Monday. While patches of
very light rain may reach the surface, favored at INT/GSO through
this evening and throughout the Piedmont early Mon, no restrictions
to visibility are anticipated. Nely surface winds are expected to be
mostly 10 kts or less, though with an occasional gust into the mid
teens kts possible this afternoon.

Outlook: Areas of fog and low stratus are expected to develop Tue
and Wed morning, probably with greatest coverage from e-cntl VA
through n-cntl NC and with highest probability of occurrence and
lowest restrictions at RWI and RDU. A moist axis, and a couple of
bands of showers and possible flight restrictions, will precede a
slow-moving cold front across the region Thu and Fri.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...np/Badgett
AVIATION...MWS