031
FXUS64 KEPZ 011115
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
415 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 340 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and
   thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures
   Monday and Tuesday.

 - Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding across
   Southwest New Mexico, in particular the Gila Wilderness. A
   Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Grant and Hidalgo
   Counties.

 - Quieter and drier weather will prevail after Monday with
   temperatures remaining seasonable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A slug of moisture will meet up with an upper trough and will
bring breezy to very breezy conditions and precipitation chances
Sunday. Anomalous moisture will still be present across the area
with PWs of around 0.9"-1.1". Plenty of shear will be at play as
well (0-6km shear of 50-70kt). Storm chances begin in the Gila
region and western areas bordering AZ in the late afternoon
(~3/4PM) and will push eastward through the evening hours Sunday.
Most recent CAMs show a line of storms initially as it gets into
the CWA but then struggles as it nears the Rio Grande Valley. This
would make sense as this trough and it`s associated pacific front
pushes towards El Paso, the sun sets and capping will start to
build up and may just transition to more showery activity after
dark. CAPE is the most uncertain in this forecast. Models continue
to suggest afternoon CAPEs will be best in far west TX and S.
Otero Co. with lower CAPEs out west where the front will reach
first.

The SPC has placed portions of our area in a Marginal risk for
severe storms Sunday with a focus for damaging wind gusts from
storms. In addition, the Gila region and portions of northern
Hidalgo Co. are in a Slight risk (Level 2/4) for excessive rainfall
with storms. A Marginal risk (Level 1/4) covers the Sacramento Mtns,
NM Bootheel, Sierra Co. and portions of Luna Co. The Gila region,
Black Range, and northern Hidalgo are in a Flood Watch currently.
Storms will be moving fast but there will be concern for training
storms causing flash flooding.

Storms exit Monday morning in the earlier morning hours, around
sunrise. Lingering showers possible in the remaining morning hours
but much drier air will push in right behind the front leaving a
nice and dry day across the area on Monday but will be a bit breezy
like Sunday will be. This nice, quiet, and dry weather will persist
through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 340 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

SCT-BKN0880 BKN150 BKN-OVC250. Developing after 18Z west of
Deming with the cold front...scattered BKN060 -SHRA with isolated
OVC050CB -TSRA. These conditions will spread east with the front,
reaching the Rio Grande Valley around 00Z and continuing east
after. Surface winds southwest 15-23G38 knots ahead of the front
and west 10-15G30 knots behind the front after sunset. A few
thunderstorms could enhance these winds with gusts to 50+ knots
possible. Showers/storms should be done by around 08Z in the east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Gusty winds today and Monday, will meet or exceed critical values
as a Pacific storm system moves through. Winds today southwest
15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph, a bit less on Monday. However min
RHs will remain quite high, negating the drying effects of the
wind. Chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight as the cold front sweeps across the fire zones. Monday
into the coming weekend look to remain dry and no significant
winds are expected after Monday. Temperatures will remain near
normal for most of the week.

Min RH: Lowlands 45-60% today, decreasing to 30-45%
Monday/Tuesday, and to 20-30% Wednesday/Thursday. Gila/Black Range
Mtns...65-80% today, decreasing to 35-50% Monday/Tuesday, and to
25-35% Wednesday/Thursday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...45-65%
today through Tuesday, decreasing to 25-45% Wednesday/Thursday. Vent
rates good-very good today and Monday, becoming poor-fair Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  60  71  50  69 /  40   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            54  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               53  67  43  66 /  60   0   0   0
Alamogordo               52  68  43  65 /  70  30   0   0
Cloudcroft               39  48  31  47 /  70  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences    53  70  44  66 /  80   0   0   0
Silver City              46  59  38  63 /  90  20   0   0
Deming                   51  66  40  67 /  80   0   0   0
Lordsburg                47  63  38  66 /  80  20   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  70  51  68 /  40   0   0   0
Dell City                58  72  48  69 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             61  79  52  74 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               54  64  46  62 /  30   0   0   0
Fabens                   60  75  51  72 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             56  69  47  67 /  50   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           57  69  48  67 /  50  10   0   0
Jornada Range            52  69  43  67 /  80   0   0   0
Hatch                    53  72  44  70 /  90   0   0   0
Columbus                 56  70  45  69 /  40   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  69  45  66 /  60  10   0   0
Mayhill                  46  60  37  58 /  70  10   0   0
Mescalero                43  58  34  58 /  80  50   0   0
Timberon                 42  57  33  55 /  80  20   0   0
Winston                  45  63  35  61 /  90  10   0   0
Hillsboro                51  69  42  65 /  90   0   0   0
Spaceport                51  70  41  66 /  90   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  61  31  65 / 100  30   0   0
Hurley                   45  62  38  64 /  90  10   0   0
Cliff                    49  67  34  69 /  90  30   0   0
Mule Creek               43  62  28  65 /  80  40   0   0
Faywood                  48  61  39  63 /  90   0   0   0
Animas                   49  67  40  67 /  70  10   0   0
Hachita                  49  66  39  66 /  70   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           52  70  42  68 /  80   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  63  41  65 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from noon MST today through this evening for Central
     Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner