797
FXUS64 KMAF 061702
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- A warming trend continues through at least Wednesday, after
  which temperatures will decrease slightly Thursday and Friday,
  before rebounding through Columbus Day.

- There is a 10-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms south of
  I-10 Thursday and Friday, and again Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

A rather pedestrian forecast is in store for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico through Columbus Day and beyond.  WV imagery
this morning shows the upper ridge over the Four Corners, putting
the region under dry, northwest flow aloft.  At the surface, return
flow is back in place.  As a result of all this, a warmer, drier
forecast will ensue over the next week or so.

Today, thicknesses will continue increasing as the ridge builds
east, adding an average of 5 F to yesterday`s highs, around a degree
or so above climatology and putting most locations in the 80s.

Tonight, the LLJ that has been absent the past week or so
redevelops, although not strongly. This will combine w/a few
mid/high clouds to keep overnight minimums ~ 8-10 F above normal.

Wednesday, increasing thicknesses will add another couple of degrees
to afternoon highs.  Unfortunately, short term grids remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Unfortunately, an upper trough will begin developing over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico late Wednesday afternoon, and persist
Thursday and Friday.  This will shave 2-3 F off of highs Thursday
and Friday, and result in low chances of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon south of I-10.  For those who prefer warmer
temperatures, a deep trough will begin developing over the west
coast over the weekend, shoving the upper trough to the east and
once again increasing thicknesses.  Temperatures will then warm
through the weekend, topping out Columbus Day some 8-10 F above
normal, with 90s expected in the river valleys.  By this time, West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be under progressive southwest
flow aloft, and shortwaves moving through this flow could kick off a
few showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon.  Lamentably, QPF
remains tepid.

Just beyond the extended, the GFS once again increases PWATs at KMAF
to 1.92" by 12Z Tuesday, saturating the column to 300 mb.
Climatology puts the 100th percentile at 1.45".  Even the ECMWF
comes in at 1.63".  All this is in response to the west coast trough
beginning to eject to the Four Corners.  This has a good chance of
disappearing over the next couple of runs, but we`ll keep an eye on
it. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions throughout TAF period, with light winds from the
south/southeast below 10 mph at all TAF sites. Low confidence in
any development of mist or lower cloud ceilings at any terminals
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  86  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 60  84  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  88  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            63  86  64  84 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           57  76  58  73 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    59  81  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    55  80  56  77 /   0   0   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     62  85  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   62  85  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     62  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...94