235
FXUS64 KEPZ 161814
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1214 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

 - Continued isolated thunderstorms today, with temperatures
   several degrees below normal.

 - Increased storm activity Friday through Sunday, with a threat
   of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

 - Storm chances lower early next week with drier and warmer
   conditions expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Broad, large UL ridge covers much of the CONUS with the cores of
the ridge located across UT and the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. Closer to home and more relevant to our weather is
an UL low over Central TX. This feature will be a major factor in
the days ahead. For today, it will actually limit (but not
eliminate) convective potential for the central third of the CWA,
as dry, subsiding air is pulled southward ahead of it. The
western third of the CWA will see increased rain chances where
increased moisture has combined with some UL support related to
the low. Lastly, Hudspeth County and the Sacramento Mountains may
also see increased storm coverage from the low. Heavy rain will be
the main concern with the highest threat for flash flooding
expected for areas near the AZ border into the Gila Wilderness.

The UL low/wave will make very slow progress westward, and it
will enhance our thunderstorm chances tomorrow through Sunday with
chances peaking on Saturday. PWs will increase from 1-1.3" to
1.25-1.35" area wide. Thus, heavy rain and flash flooding will be
the main concern with storms over the weekend. The most likely
timing for storms will be each afternoon and evening, but given UL
forcing, rainfall will be possible at any time throughout the
weekend.

As we go into next week, the UL low will shift into Mexico while
continuing to weaken, and the UL high will resettle farther south,
pushing drier air into the CWA. PW values will drop below an inch
by Wednesday. Monday will probably be another active day,
especially toward the International Border, but chances will
decrease some on Tuesday and then drop very low on Wednesday. The
NBM has most locations completely dry by Wednesday. Highs will
continue to be below normal, but as the drier air begins to filter
into the latter half of next week, we`ll see temperatures climb.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT100 east, SCT-
BKN100 west (DMN/TCS). ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA with possibly numerous
SHRA/TSRA west of the Divide is expected this afternoon and
evening. This places the highest chances for impacts at DMN but
all sites may see storms. Heavy rain and gusty winds would be the
main impacts. Outside of storms, winds will be light and variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

With the exception of burn scar flooding, fire weather concerns
will be minimal for the next several days. Below normal
temperatures and healthy surface moisture will keep min RH values
well above critical thresholds with moderate to strong overnight
recoveries. A slowly approaching UL low will bring increased rain
and thunderstorm chances with heavy rainfall and flash flooding
the main concern. This will be particularly true of any recent
burn scar areas. Outside of thunderstorm influences, winds will be
light with poor to good venting each afternoon. Warmer and drier
conditions will begin toward the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73  95  72  93 /  20  20  50  40
Sierra Blanca            62  88  64  87 /  10  40  40  60
Las Cruces               67  92  66  90 /  20  20  50  40
Alamogordo               66  90  67  90 /  10  40  40  60
Cloudcroft               48  68  50  68 /  20  70  40  90
Truth or Consequences    69  92  69  91 /  20  30  30  50
Silver City              59  84  60  83 /  30  50  30  70
Deming                   65  95  66  93 /  20  20  40  50
Lordsburg                64  89  65  88 /  30  20  40  40
West El Paso Metro       73  93  72  91 /  20  20  50  40
Dell City                65  91  67  91 /  10  30  30  60
Fort Hancock             70  95  71  94 /  10  30  40  60
Loma Linda               65  86  65  84 /  10  40  40  60
Fabens                   70  95  70  93 /  20  20  50  50
Santa Teresa             70  92  69  90 /  20  20  50  40
White Sands HQ           73  92  72  91 /  20  30  50  60
Jornada Range            68  92  67  90 /  20  30  50  50
Hatch                    68  95  67  94 /  20  20  40  50
Columbus                 71  95  71  93 /  20  30  60  50
Orogrande                66  90  66  89 /  20  40  40  50
Mayhill                  53  78  54  79 /  20  70  30  90
Mescalero                52  78  54  79 /  20  70  40  80
Timberon                 50  75  51  76 /  20  70  30  80
Winston                  57  83  58  82 /  20  60  30  80
Hillsboro                64  90  64  88 /  20  40  30  70
Spaceport                66  92  64  90 /  20  30  40  50
Lake Roberts             55  85  55  84 /  30  60  20  80
Hurley                   60  87  61  86 /  20  40  30  70
Cliff                    62  89  63  89 /  20  30  30  70
Mule Creek               59  85  61  84 /  30  30  40  60
Faywood                  63  87  63  86 /  20  40  20  70
Animas                   65  89  66  88 /  30  40  40  50
Hachita                  63  90  64  89 /  20  40  40  50
Antelope Wells           65  89  66  88 /  20  50  40  70
Cloverdale               61  82  62  82 /  30  40  40  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown