846
FXUS64 KEPZ 011816
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1116 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 935 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

 - Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and
   thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Breezy to windy into
   Monday.

 - Storms will be capable of heavy rain, in particular the Gila
   Wilderness. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Grant
   and Hidalgo Counties. Storms may also produce damaging winds
   and a brief, weak tornado.

 - Quieter and drier weather will prevail after Monday with
   temperatures remaining seasonable.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 935 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Unsettled weather is forecast for the short-term. Plentiful
moisture has moved over the region, exhibited by our 12z (!) RAOB,
which collected 1.21" of PWs. Normal for early Nov is about 0.4".
This is courtesy of the subtropical jet being pulled northward
ahead of a deep longwave trough moving into the Great Basin today.
We`ll be in the right entrance region of the jet with good speed
shear and modest instability. Only about 500 J/kg of SBCAPE are
modeled for this afternoon with higher values to the east into SE
NM. Excellent 0-6km shear of 50kts is modeled by the REFS later
today as the jet streak moves overhead. All the cloud cover
streaming overhead may inhibit how unstable we get later today,
but the favorable jet/frontal dynamics should help overcome that
in terms of convective initiation.

The Pacific front will push through S NM this evening with a wave
of showers and storms ahead of it, forming what appears to be a
squall line. Strong-severe wind gusts are possible from this
convective line as it progresses W to E into the overnight. SPC
has increased our severe risk for today/tonight with a portion of
Otero and Sierra counties now in a SLGT for damaging winds and an
isolated tornado. 0-1km SRH should exceed 100 m2/s2 in some areas
through the evening, favoring northern areas for the marginal
tornado threat. Eastern NM is most likely to see tornadoes through
tonight. The rain/storm threat will diminish for far west TX as
the best dynamics track to the northeast.

Flood Watch remains in effect for the Gila through the evening
where moisture and jet dynamics are most favorable. Repeated
rounds of rain are forecast with isolated amounts of 1-2" and a
few instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have
received heavy rainfall recently. The flood threat lowers as you
head south and east. Rain chances largely end by the early AM Mon.

Breezy to strong synoptic winds are forecast as well with this
system, increasing to near advisory level in the Gila this
afternoon, shifting E overnight to the San Andres/Organs and then
the Sacs. The strongest winds are expected in the Sacs with gusts
to 60-70 mph possible along ridges and east slopes into the day on
Mon. Wind headlines have been posted to reflect these hazards.
Elsewhere, breezy conditions are expected with gusts to around 40
mph, continuing into Mon mainly E of the RGV.

Dry and calmer winds after Mon with seasonal temps under quasi-
zonal flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Increasing winds this afternoon, gusting near 30kts from SW. Winds
shift more W this evening with frontal passage. Winds stay gusty
through the overnight. Front also brings a wave of showers/storms
in the evening, highest confidence for KDMN and KTCS in seeing
TS. MVFR criteria due to CIGs/heavy rainfall possible. Strong
gusts possible from TS. Rain moves out around midnight with
clearing skies later in period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 935 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast through the period. Pacific
front brings a wave of showers/storms through the evening, some
producing high rain rates and damaging winds. Flood threat is
highest in the Gila with the severe threat across northern areas.
Rain chances diminish for areas to south and east. Breezy SW
winds develop this afternoon, shifting W overnight. Breezy winds
progress eastward on Mon with lighter winds out west. Winds
subside for Tue, staying light for the rest of the week. No chance
of rain starting Mon with cooler temps.

Min RHs range from 40-80% today, then 30-50%. Vent rates will be
good to excellent through Mon, then mostly poor on Tue.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  59  70  48  69 /  50  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            54  70  45  66 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               53  65  43  66 /  80   0   0   0
Alamogordo               52  68  43  65 /  90  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               39  44  31  48 /  90  40   0   0
Truth or Consequences    52  69  44  67 /  80  10   0   0
Silver City              46  58  36  63 /  90  40   0   0
Deming                   51  65  40  68 /  90   0   0   0
Lordsburg                48  63  39  66 /  90  30   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  69  50  68 /  60  10   0   0
Dell City                57  71  47  68 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             61  77  51  73 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               54  63  45  63 /  50  10   0   0
Fabens                   60  74  49  71 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             57  67  46  67 /  60  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           57  67  47  67 /  80  10   0   0
Jornada Range            53  67  43  67 /  80   0   0   0
Hatch                    53  70  44  70 /  90   0   0   0
Columbus                 56  69  45  69 /  80   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  67  44  65 /  80  10   0   0
Mayhill                  46  57  37  60 /  80  10   0   0
Mescalero                44  55  34  59 /  90  50   0   0
Timberon                 42  55  32  56 /  90  20   0   0
Winston                  44  61  34  63 /  90  10   0   0
Hillsboro                51  68  41  66 /  90  10   0   0
Spaceport                51  69  41  67 /  80   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             43  59  32  66 /  90  50   0   0
Hurley                   45  61  35  64 /  90  30   0   0
Cliff                    50  66  39  70 /  90  40   0   0
Mule Creek               45  61  35  66 /  90  40   0   0
Faywood                  48  60  39  64 /  90  10   0   0
Animas                   50  66  40  68 /  90  10   0   0
Hachita                  50  65  39  67 /  90  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  69  42  69 /  90   0   0   0
Cloverdale               50  62  40  65 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Grant County/Silver
     City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern
     Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower
     Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening
     for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black
     Range Foothills-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
     Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River
     Valley.

     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM MST Monday for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson