031
FXUS65 KLKN 191917
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1217 PM PDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Record warmth is expected across all of Northern and Central
  Nevada each afternoon today through Tuesday

* Dry weather will persist through at least mid next week

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Record smashing heat continues, with
high temperatures expected to reach 5-10 degrees above historical
record levels today and tomorrow. High pressure has continued to
be dominant over the Southwest allowing temperatures to climb into
the mid 80s across the area. Overnight temperatures are equally
above average, with nightly lows in the upper 30s and 40s for the
next several nights, outside of the usual coldest valleys. The
high pressure center shifts south this weekend, allowing flow over
Nevada to return to near zonal. This will allow temperatures to
drop back to near historical record levels, dropping to the mid to
upper 70s for Sunday, before high pressure begins to rebuild for
early next week. Afternoon winds are also expected to strengthen
during this time, with gusts around 25 mph for Monday through
Wednesday. The potential wetter pattern mentioned in yesterdays
forecast has dried out again, but signals for at least a brief
return of below record temperatures late next week persist with
this run.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in persistent
record or near record warm temperatures through at least
Wednesday. Low confidence of cooler temperatures late next week.
Blended base NBM output with NBM 25th percentile and lowered the
usual cold valleys an additional few degrees for low temperatures
tonight and tomorrow night as the NBM has consistently been too
warm overnight.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR condtions persist at all terminals thru the next
24 hours as high pressure remains in control across the Great
Basin. Winds will be light, around 10KT or less.

&&


.CLIMATE...Records continue to fall across the coverage area and
the next few days will be no different, with most records expected
to be broken by 5-10 degrees. Here is the current round of
forecast versus record high temperatures for March 20-23:

March 20:
KEKO: 76/2004              85
KELY: 76/2004              84
KP68: 79/2004              85
KTPH: 79/2004              86
KWMC: 79/2004              85

March 21:
KEKO: 78/2004              79
KELY: 76/2004              79
KP68: 79/2004              78
KTPH: 79/2004              81
KWMC: 80/2004              78

March 22:
KEKO: 72/1960   72
KELY: 72/2004    74
KP68: 75/2004       74
KTPH: 76/2004    79
KWMC: 77/1977   72

March 23:
KEKO: 72/1998   77
KELY: 71/2004   78
KP68: 72/2004   77
KTPH: 76/1998   81
KWMC: 77/1960   77

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...92
CLIMATE...