188
FXUS65 KLKN 011926
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1126 AM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1032 AM PST Sun Feb 1 2026

* Shortwave trough over northern Nevada Monday will delay rising
  temperatures

* High confidence in strong ridging rebuilding across northern and
  central Nevada bringing the potential for additional near record
  high temperatures by mid-week

* Low confidence for potential of active weather returning over
  central and northern Nevada early next week

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A persistent strong upper ridging over
the western CONUS will keep central and northern Nevada
unseasonably warm for this time of year with temperatures this
afternoon reaching to near record high temperatures. Tomorrow, a
shortwave trough will move across northern Nevada bringing in
slightly cooler temperatures to delay another gradual temperature
increase. The relief will be short lived as the upper ridge
strengthens back up on Tuesday, which will form into a Rex Block
pattern by mid-week and a cutoff low forms over Baja California.
Additional chances for near record high temperatures exist
through late week. By the weekend, the Rex Block is not expected
to last long and will weaken, and the cutoff low will become more
widespread, however will remain dry with temperatures remaining
unseasonably warm.

Late Sunday into early next week, models are showing the potential
for an active weather pattern for the western CONUS. Discrepancies
in the models will keep a low confidence on the timing and
position of this system as well as precipitation amounts,
precipitation type, and temperature.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence with warming
temperature trends under a continuing high pressure ridge. High
confidence temperatures reaching to near record. Low confidence on
active weather pattern over Nevada early next week. No edits were
made to the NBM grids at this time.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions persist at all terminals through Monday afternoon
under high pressure. No precipitation is forecasted and winds will
remain light through the period.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...99