779
FXUS65 KLKN 060759
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1259 AM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated (5-15% chance) thunderstorms linger overnight through
  around 8AM this Tuesday morning across mainly Elko and White
  Pine Counties.

* Record to near record warmth today through Friday.

* Possible pattern change bringing cooler more active weather this
  weekend.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Tuesday)

Weak instability across northeastern Nevada overnight will
continue to produce isolated (5-15% chance) thunderstorm activity
through the early to mid-morning hours. Storms are expected to
produce very little rainfall, generally less than a tenth of an
inch. Mostly sunny across the entire CWA late this morning and
afternoon with dry and storm free conditions along with relatively
light winds to around 10 mph.

The area will be under a short-lived post frontal regime later
today before ridging builds back into the southwestern CONUS for
much of the rest of this week. This will allow warm afternoon high
temperatures to continue through Thursday ranging 10 to 15
degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s.

Beyond Friday the ridging over the region gets squeezed eastward
as a large longwave ULT pushes into the Pacific Northwest Friday
evening. This will tighten the gradient over the area bringing the
potential for gusty winds and impactful precipitation by the
weekend.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence exists in
continued warm temperatures each afternoon through this week. Very
low confidence exists in the potential for an impactful storm
system through the area this weekend.

&&


.AVIATION...

Partly to mostly cloudy across much of northeastern NV early this
morning with a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms at KEKO and KELY,
and a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms at KENV. Storm chances
diminish by the mid-morning hours. Mostly sunny at all TAF
terminals this afternoon with light winds to around 10 mph.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected to linger through the
overnight hours across portions of Northeastern Nevada. Between 3AM
and 8AM this morning the dry thunderstorm activity is expected to be
limited to mainly just zones 470 and 425 as the system exits east
into Utah. Mostly sunny across all zones this afternoon with valley
winds generally in the 5 to 10 mph range.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99/96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96