439
FXUS63 KLBF 011754
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1154 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation continues through Tuesday morning, with the
  most widespread rainfall expected Monday night.

- Strong northwest winds are expected behind a cold front Monday
  night, with a threat for wind gusts in excess of 50 miles per
  hour.

- Strong, gusty northwest winds are expected to continue through
  the day on Tuesday, with gusts of 50 miles per hour remaining
  possible.

- Cooler, drier weather returns mid week into the weekend.
  Though precipitation may return next weekend, confidence
  remains low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 123 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Currently, broad warm advection persists across the area amid
southeasterly flow, in response to broad surface cyclogenesis across
eastern Colorado and Wyoming. This isentropic ascent has led to
persistent stratus, light rain/drizzle, and patchy fog through much
of the past couple days across the area. Temperatures remain steady
in the lower to middle 50s across the area.

For today and tonight, expect the cloud cover to remain in place
through the entirety of the day, with temperatures this afternoon
only climbing a few degrees into the low 60s. As with today, cannot
rule out periods of light rain and drizzle, especially this evening
and tonight. This is in response to a quickly northward lifting warm
front, which looks to bring a narrow tongue of upper 50s to
potentially low 60 dewpoints into the area from south to north. This
will also coincide with the approach of the primary upper low, as it
begins to eject east into the Rockies. This increases ascent aloft,
and promotes increasingly steep lapse rates. MUCAPE increases as a
result, and this increasing elevated instability overspreads the
area tonight into tomorrow morning. Widespread showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms should quickly advance ahead of the surface
warm front, overspreading the Sandhills and northern Nebraska
tonight. This precipitation will then lift into South Dakota Monday
morning, but not before leading to beneficial rainfall amounts for
areas generally north of HWY 2. With surface low pressure continuing
to deepen off to the west today, winds will continue to increase
from the southeast. Expect widespread southeasterly wind gusts as
highs as 30 to 40 miles per hour across the area this afternoon.

By tomorrow, the surface low will begin to eject east into western
Nebraska, passing through the area from west to east Monday
afternoon. The passage of the surface low should briefly lead to a
lull in precipitation coverage, before the surface cold front passes
through the area and a deformation axis begins to pivot into the
area from the west. Guidance continues to suggest that the cold
front will largely clear the area by mid-afternoon Monday, and keep
the majority of convection associated with this boundary off to the
east by Monday evening. Still, this will need to be monitored
closely, as a strong to possibly severe storm cannot be ruled out
should the frontal boundary progress through the area even a little
bit slower than guidance indicates. This may also bring a brief
period of clearing skies Monday afternoon immediately ahead of the
front, and this could boost temperatures into the middle to upper
60s east of HWY 83.

The main impact will be strengthening northwest winds with the
passage of the cold front, as strengthening cold advection promotes
ample mechanical mixing. As the upper low begins to depart to the
east by Monday night, H7-H85 flow quickly strengthens to 50-60kts.
The aforementioned mechanical mixing should be enough to promote some
of this higher momentum flow to the surface, and lead to a very
windy Monday evening and overnight. In fact, guidance continues to
suggest a threat for 55+ mph gusts, and a High Wind Watch may be
needed should confidence continue to grow. These strong winds will
also coincide with the aforementioned deformation axis precipitation,
though it appears this should all fall as rain. In all, this points
to a very miserable Monday night, with strong winds, rain, and wind
chills falling into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 123 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

As the cold front continues to track through the region on Tuesday,
wrap around precipitation from the low pressure system should
quickly wind down through the day, and mostly be out of the area
by the late afternoon to early evening. Guidance continues to
trend towards an earlier arrival of the front, which should end
precipitation a bit earlier across portions of western Nebraska.
With the precipitation largely expected to be finished across
western Nebraska by the morning, it now appears there will be
very little overlap with cooler air aloft, which should keep all
precipitation as rain. Will still keep an eye on the potential
for a little snow to mix in around Pine Ridge if the front
tracks slower than guidance suggests. The main impacts will
remain the strong, gusty northwest winds as the low remains in
the vicinity. Still expect to see sustained winds of 20 to 30
mph throughout the day, with gusts of 45 to 50 mph lasting
through the evening.

Cooler, drier weather then settles in for the rest of the week.
Highs are only expected to climb into the 50s through the weekend,
with lows in the lower to mid 30s. These highs are not unusual for
early November, as our typical highs start around 58 degrees,
dropping to around 55 degrees by the end of the first week of
November. Our lows are expected to remain slightly warmer than
usual, as typically overnight lows the first week of November
are around the mid 20s.

By the weekend, another upper level trough is expected to track
across the northern Plains, which may provide the forcing for
another surface system to bring precipitation across the region. At
this time, confidence remains low in placement and timing of the
trough, so confidence remains low for precipitation as well.
However, will continue to keep an eye on this, as this system may
bring our next chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An approaching disturbance will bring a multitude of aviation
impacts to the area over the next 24 hours.

As early as Sunday afternoon, an expanding shield of
precipitation will lift north and east across the area with
degrading CIGs and visibility. Later tonight, more appreciable
rain chances arrive with a slight chance/chance for thunder as
well. Convective coverage should remain isolated to widely
scattered with -SHRA/-RA more widespread. Eventually a dry slot
will arrive from the southwest and herald an end to
precipitation for many southwest Nebraska terminals including
KLBF. Though precipitation may end/taper off, winds will
increase with strong LLWS for the region overnight tonight ahead
of a strong front arriving by the end of the period and strong
northwest winds in the post-frontal airmass.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ