962
FXUS63 KGLD 061729
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1129 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected, with high temperatures generally in
  the 80s and low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Currently, there is an upper level ridge over the Rockies, with a
trough just east of the Great Lakes region. This pattern is keeping
our upper level flow from the northwest and the main jet to the
north near the US/Canada border. At the surface, clear skies and
relatively light south-southwesterly winds are forecast through the
early morning hours.

Sunny, warm and dry weather is expected across the region today and
through the remainder of the short term period. Today, the upper
level ridge centered over the Four Corners will slowly shift
eastward and stall near Central Colorado, keeping our upper level
flow from the northwest. This will bring a brief warming trend for
the period, with high temperatures reaching the 80s to low 90s
across the Tri-State area. Low temperatures will remain in the 50s
tonight and tomorrow night, accompanied by light variable winds
around 5-10 mph.

A low risk for fire weather exists today for areas west of Kansas
Highway 27. A surface front moving in from the northwest early this
morning will likely bring relative humidity values down into the
upper teens to low 20s. However, winds behind the front should stay
around 5-15 mph as well as gusts remaining less than 25 mph, keeping
conditions below critical fire weather thresholds. As the front
stalls this afternoon, relative humidity is forecast to recover into
the upper 40s and 50s heading into the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Thursday is forecast to start the period with the area under
northwest flow aloft. With high pressure at the surface,
temperatures should either be slightly cooler in the 70s, or similar
to Wednesday in the low 80s. Plenty of sunshine and winds around 5
to 15 mph are forecast underneath the high.

Friday, an upper trough is forecast to push into the Northwestern
United States with some slight ridging ahead in the Plains. This
should lead to a slightly warmer day with highs likely in the 80s.
With low pressure deepening ahead of the upper trough over the High
Plains, winds should be a bit stronger around 15-25 mph with gusts
to 35 mph. May have to keep an eye out for critical fire weather
conditions near the Tri-State border as drier air tries to push in
from the west. However, the air is forecast to already be dry enough
that we shouldn`t see precipitation, even with the advancing
features. Saturday should be fairly similar to Friday with the upper
trough forecast to stall over the High Plains while deepening in the
Western United States. If temperatures are a bit warmer though,
critical fire weather conditions could develop for counties along
the Colorado border with RH dipping more into the teens.

Sunday and beyond gets a little less clear as there is a fair amount
of spread in how deep the upper trough becomes and how quickly it
pushes through the area. For now, the forecast has the area cooling
going into the beginning of the week with a cold front pushing
through. Precipitation chances are also forecast to increase with
mid to high level moisture being pulled in from the southwest ahead
of the upper trough. If precipitation did occur, it would likely be
rain and fairly light with dry low levels.

That all being said, the GEFS and ECMWF ENS both show fairly equal
chances for a slower and faster trough progression. The slower
progression could lead increased precipitation chances with more
time to pull in gulf moisture and have a low sit over the area.
Severe weather chances would also be possible. On the flip side, the
slower trough would give the area much cooler temperatures. There is
even a 10% chance for freezing temperatures and snow. While both of
these scenarios would likely be more impactful, for now am sticking
with a more median solution which seems to verify more often in
situations like this. We`ll have to watch and see how this next big
system develops.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

For KGLD and KMCK...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period. Expect light and variable winds under 10 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holdren
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Pietrycha