892
FXUS63 KGID 161801
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
101 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm remain possible
  this afternoon and early evening. Most areas will stay dry.

- Increasingly warm conditions return and high temperatures peak
  near 100 degrees on Sunday and Monday.

- Better rain chances return to the area mid to late next week
  (July 22-25th).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The primary change in this forecast was the addition of isolated
sprinkles/showers to the forecast for this afternoon. This is
most favorable over the eastern half of the area. There is
enough instability that a few rumbles of thunder are not out of
the question as well. Shear is very weak, so updrafts will be
short-lived and non-severe. All in all, impacts will be
minimal, and the overwhelming majority of the area is expected
to remain dry.

Otherwise, ridging will continue to favor mostly dry and
increasingly warm conditions through the weekend. Temperatures
on both Sunday and Monday could approach 100 degrees with heat
index values near 105 degrees in many areas. Of the two days,
Monday looks to be the "peak," before a pattern shift for the
middle to end of next week.

Models favor a more active pattern for the middle to end of
next week. But, to be fair, it isn`t particularly hard to be
more active than this week has been. The EPS favors slightly
above-normal precip totals in the 5-10 day range, but the other
global ensembles are not quite as optimistic.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are favored through the period. SCT-BKN cumulus
continues this afternoon. An isolated shower cannot be ruled
out, but the probability for this to impact EAR/GRI is low
(10%).

The potential for MVFR vis Friday morning (5-10%) is lower than
previous mornings.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels