435
FXUS63 KGID 011747
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1147 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog possible through the morning hours today with highs in the upper
  50s to low 60s.

- Scattered showers/storms move into the area this evening/tonight.

- A Strong low brings gusty southerly winds on Monday (30-45mph)
  with potential for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
  along a cold front/dryline.

- Northerly winds gusting 40-50mph expected on Tuesday behind
  the departing low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 237 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

It`s a foggy and drizzly morning across the area under low stratus.
Aloft the area is under southwesterly flow with a deep trough moving
over the West Coast and a ridge centered over the Midwest. Scattered
showers/drizzle will largely come to an end by sunrise though foggy
weather is expected to linger through the late morning hours.
Visibility may drop as low as 1 mile in areas of fog this morning.
Widespread cloud coverage today keeps highs confined to the upper
50s to low 60s. As troughing over the western U.S. moves into the
Rockies this evening, warm air advection (WAA) develops over the
area. The WAA regime will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
to the area this evening/tonight. Southerly winds strengthen
throughout the overnight hours, gusting 25-35mph. Showers/storms
could bring stronger winds aloft down to the surface (potentially
gusting 40-45mph).

The aforementioned deep trough and associated surface low move into
the Plains Monday morning. Showers/storms are favored to come to an
end by the mid morning hours as the dry slot of the low moves over
the area. Gusty southerly winds are expected Monday morning, gusting
30-45mph across the area. This southerly flow will help to advect
increasing moisture and instability into the area. A cold
front/dryline push into the area Monday afternoon with winds
becoming lighter along/close to the front. Scattered thunderstorms
are likely to develop along the front/dryline Monday afternoon
though the exact location of this development is still uncertain.
The degree of clearing within the dry slot of the low will help
determine just how warm and unstable the atmosphere becomes Monday
afternoon. A more unstable atmosphere would bring a higher threat
for severe thunderstorms. Still, even a few hundred joules of
CAPE could support a few strong to marginally severe storms.
Initial storms that form are favored to be discrete (potentially
supercellular) but over time storms will form into a line. This
line of storms looks to exit eastern portions of the area
during the mid evening hours. Overall think the current SPC day
2 outlook for severe thunderstorms seems reasonable which places
areas along and southeast of the Tri-Cities in a marginal risk.


Winds shift to the north Monday evening/night behind the cold
frontal passage. Winds increase Monday night to Tuesday morning
behind the departing low pressure system. These winds gusting 40-
50mph are favored to continue throughout the day on Tuesday.
Scattered showers are expected on Tuesday along the backside of the
departing low. Highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s combined with the
gusty/strong winds and scattered showers will result in a chilly
feel for those outdoors on Tuesday (Wind chills in the upper 30s to
low 50s). Drier weather is expected Wednesday onwards with
seasonable temperatures each day (highs mid-upper 50s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

An upper level low pressure is over Kansas and Nebraska. This has
resulted in increased upper lift across the region with rain
showers. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas are mostly out of the south to southeast at around 10
to 15 MPH with gusts up to around 20 MPH. High temperatures today
will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Rain showers are expected to
decrease in coverage tonight with low temperatures generally ranging
from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Light rain showers and/or drizzle are
expected to continue into Sunday with south to southeast winds
continuing across the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be a little
warmer than today with a strengthening surface trough to the west.
Rain showers with some thunderstorms will increase across the area
Sunday night as an upper trough to the west moves closer to the
region. Low temperatures Sunday night will be warmer than the
previous night (lows mainly in the mid 50s to low 60s) as the
surface trough to the west expands across the area.

The upper trough will move over the Central Plains on Monday with a
cold front moving into the area from the west and northwest. While
there is some uncertainty with high temperatures on Monday due to
the timing of the front, expect highs to generally range from the
mid 60s to mid/upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the area on Monday. Storm chances will increase along the
front late Monday afternoon into Monday night. Low temperatures
Monday night are expected to range from the low 40s to low 50s. Rain
chances (up to around 50% chance) continue on Tuesday with the upper
trough/low over the area. There are some model
differences/uncertainty with high temperatures on Tuesday due to
uncertainty in the strength of the cooler airmass but expect highs
to mostly be in the 50s. Mostly dry conditions are expected
Wednesday through Friday with high temperatures generally in the 50s
and 60s. Low temperatures Tuesday night, Wednesday night, Thursday
night, and Friday night are expected to be in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low ceilings are expected to continue through 18z Monday but may
vary between LIFR and MVFR. Some improvement in ceilings may
occur briefly this afternoon (maybe to MVFR) but will decrease
again by 00z. Improvement is again expected around 16z Monday
possibly to MVFR. Sprinkles/mist may develop this afternoon with
rain picking up in intensity/coverage tonight by 09z. Some
thunderstorms may develop between 09z and 15z. The rain and
storms will clear out of the area from west to east by 18z. Wind
shear is expected beginning this evening and possibly continuing
until around 14z. Winds will be out of the southeast this
afternoon and will increase to around 15 to 20 knots around 03z
with higher gusts. Winds will again increase to around 20 knots
at around 09z and will decrease some and become more southerly
by 15z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt