967
FXUS63 KGLD 011723
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1023 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For is forecast to linger through the morning. The fog may be
  dense at times.

- Chances for rain through Monday.

- Monday & Tuesday could bring some strong winds with gusts
  around 30-60 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Current observations have upper ridging taking shape over the
region. At the surface, we have low pressure to the west and high
pressure to the east. This is allowing for more low level moisture
to funnel in and has led to low clouds across the area and fog. The
fog hasn`t been thick yet with the cloud cover, but there is an 80%
chance that patches of dense fog will develop south of Highway 36
before sunrise.

During the day, the upper ridge is forecast to slide east while a
trough slides east into the Rockies. As it does so, it is forecast
to deepen the low pressure along the Front Range. This should
increase the winds to be more around 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
The higher winds are forecast to favor Eastern Colorado, closer to
the surface low. This increase in winds should burn any fog off
during the morning, but the cloud cover will likely stick around
through the day with no dry air forecast to come in and clear the
clouds. Temperatures then should slowly rise towards the 60s as we
get to the afternoon hours.

Overnight, precipitation chances are forecast to increase as we keep
the moist air mass in place while the surface low nears the area.
With the additional forcing from the surface low/front and upper
trough, showers are forecast to develop with maybe a few storms
sneaking in. Instabilty will likely be too low for any strong
storms to develop, though periods of heavier rain are possible. With
winds remaining strong from the advancing low and precipitation in
the area, dense fog chances will be much lower. Fog would likely
form early in the evening and then fade during the overnight hours.
This looks to be further compounded by the surface low bringing a
dry slot to the area. Even with all of this happening though,
temperatures will likely remain similar to the past few days with
lows in the 40s and 50s.

Monday is forecast to start with a brief reprieve from the wind,
unless the faster ensemble solutions verify and the front moves
through at sunrise. Either way, the front should pass through most
of the area during the morning and increase the winds. There is
still a decent spread in the solutions, but the main core of the
system is forecast to push north while the upper trough broadens
out. With this broadening of the low pressure system, we would
likely see winds from the northwest at 15-35 mph with gusts around
30-50 mph. The stronger winds should again favor Eastern Colorado
with the earlier frontal passage. There remains about a 20-30%
chance that the low remains more concentrated and pushes gusts more
into the 40-65 mph range. The more shocking thing though is that if
the dry slot doesn`t shift, we could actually see the sun for a bit
on Monday with clear skies until the low moves enough for the wrap
around moisture. This does give the area another chance for rain and
storms, especially if the front stalls near or just south of the
area. Should storms develop, there is a 5% chance that one would
produce strong wind gusts around 60-70 mph with the downshear
vectors around 55 knots and overall strong flow. The limiter is the
better instability could be south of the area, and severe wind gusts
from storms are less likely when the environmental flow and gusts
are above 40 mph.

Monday night, the system is forecast to stall out just east of the
area. This is forecast to lead to an interesting night with strong
wind remaining over the area (20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph) and
some wrap around rain showers moving through. Fog would also be
possible, though dense fog probably won`t form with the strong winds
and downslope component to the winds. Cold air advection is forecast
behind the front with temperatures lowering into the 30s as the
night goes on. The more showers and cloud cover we have though, the
warmer we will likely be.

Tuesday, the system is forecast to slowly push off to the east. The
forecast is for a windy start with winds remaining around 20-35 mph
with gusts up to 60 mph. A few lingering showers could also move
through during the morning hours. As the day progresses, the winds
should lighten and the showers end. Skies are also forecast to begin
clearing. In spite of the clearing skies, the cold air that moved in
is forecast to keep temperatures in the 40s and 50s during the day.
The night time hours are then forecast to drop winds to around 5 to
10 mph with mostly clear skies across the area. This should allow
temperatures to drop into the 20s and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

On Wednesday and Thursday, the upper-level pattern starts to
transition into zonal flow as the system from Tuesday finally
exits out of the area as a trough to the west begins to move
east and pass over the area midday Thursday. Then on Friday and
the remainder of the period, we can expect some slight ridging
before turning back to a broad and slow moving trough that could
dig into the County Warning Area (CWA). While confidence for the
evolution for the overall pattern on Thursday increases from low
to medium (30% to 50%), there is still some uncertainty with the
overall pattern on Thursday as a possible cut-off low from the
system on Tuesday could form just north of the area and combine
with the primary trough. For the rest of the period, ensemble
spread does show some variability of the ridge and could amplify
to the north on Friday. This could then potentially push the
broad trough on Saturday to the southwest and stall over the
Nevada and Utah border. There is low confidence (25%) that the
ridge would amplify to the north.

Temperatures throughout second half of next week look to be
fairly consistent. While afternoon highs are forecast to stay in
the 50s, the morning hours will likely be a little cold as
temperatures over the Tri-State border continue to be at or
nearly above freezing with slightly warmer temperatures towards
the east.

For precipitation, a brief shower could happen Thursday as a
weak cold front passes through with the trough. While there is
some vorticity over the area, the main limiting factor is the
lack of mid-layer moisture aloft.However, there is low
confidence (30%) that showers could occur. If showers do occur
it is favored to be south of I-70 within the very early morning
hours. On Saturday, there could be a chance for showers
throughout the day as the broad trough passes through. However
with the low confidence within the patterns evolution, chances
for showers could diminish as time progresses closer. On late
Saturday night, with the freezing temperatures and the
possibility for precipitation, there is a potential for
rain/snow mix within far western Kit Carson County. Although, no
snow accumulation is expected at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1015 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

For KGLD, conditions are forecast to bounce between IFR and MVFR
over the next several hours as ceilings vary between 700-1,200
feet AGL. KMCK is forecast to largely remain in MVFR, but will
monitor closely for a drop in ceilings. A combo of mist, light
rain, and drizzle is expected to be off and on throughout the
afternoon and evening hours, leading to mild, but non-impactful
visibility reductions.

Winds from the southeast are forecast to be gusting in the 25-38
kts range this through most of the period, ahead of a cold
front. We could also see a wave of storms move through the
region from the southwest, which may impact TAF sites between
4-11Z. Behind the potential line of storms, flight categories
will improve, but LLWS from the southwest around 50 kts at
200-400 feet is expected. Also, surface winds will weaken during
this time and become southwesterly. The cold front is forecast
to impact the TAF sites around 18-21Z tomorrow.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK/Moeller
AVIATION...CA