017
FXUS65 KMSO 061841
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1241 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:


- Beautiful, mild, and unseasonably warm weather continues through
  Friday.

- Gusty winds Friday afternoon will lead to near-critical fire
  weather conditions across southwest Montana.

- Confidence continues to grow for a sharp transition to a cold,
  winter-like pattern this weekend.

Warm and dry high pressure remains firmly in control across the
Northern Rockies for the remainder of this week. Beautiful and
unseasonably warm days are expected through Friday, with high
temperatures running around 15 degrees above early October
seasonal normals.

On Friday, ahead of the approaching system, gusty west to
southwesterly  winds are expected to develop. The combination of
these gusty winds, warm temperatures, and dry conditions will
cause near-critical fire weather conditions across southwest
Montana during the Friday afternoon hours.

Confidence continues to grow in a sharp pattern change arriving
this coming weekend. A strong cold front will traverse the region
Saturday, dropping high temperatures significantly.

Precipitation and Snow Level Details:
Moisture arrives Saturday afternoon and continues through Monday
afternoon.  While there is still some uncertainty regarding exact
snow levels and the placement of the heaviest precipitation,
current long-term model runs are hinting that the bulk of the
precipitation will be focused across the Continental Divide. From
there, it is expected to spread westward across southwest Montana
toward the Idaho/Montana border, generally south of the I-90
corridor.

As of today, models are showing snow levels by Sunday morning
ranging  significantly from north to south: dropping to around
2,000 feet near Glacier National Park, around 4,000 feet near
Homestake Pass, and hovering around 6,000 feet over Lemhi County.
High-elevation passes and backcountry trails face the greatest
likelihood of winter travel impacts and slick conditions.

For lower-elevation valleys in western Montana (including
Missoula,  Hamilton, and Kalispell), probabilities of receiving 1
inch or more of snow remain relatively low (10-15%). However, as
cold air deepens through Sunday and Monday morning, rain showers
could mix with or temporarily transition to light snow down to the
valley floors.

Backcountry and Recreation Note:
Those planning outdoor recreation, camping, or hunting trips in
high-elevation areas this weekend should prepare for full winter
conditions, rapidly dropping temperatures, and treacherous travel
over mountain passes.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will predominate across all Western
Montana terminals through mid-week under upper-level high
pressure. Light winds and clear skies will persist, with localized
morning mist/fog possible in low valleys, especially KGPI.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$