<pre>158
FXUS65 KTFX 020249
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
749 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - It will be warm through this week with a slight cooldown on
   Monday.

 - It will be windy at times through Friday with the strongest
   winds tonight into Monday morning.

 - It will be dry Tuesday through Saturday with light
   precipitation tonight and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...

The leading edge of the upper level shortwave responsible for
briefly flattening the ridge across the region arrived over the
past few hours, evident by radar, satellite, and surface
observations. Mainly mountain and adjacent plains rain/snow has
developed along the Rocky Mountain Front, with winds on the
adjacent plains also responding to the increased low to mid-level
flow. Expectation is for winds to peak later this evening in
western areas, and late tonight or early Monday morning in eastern
areas as the disturbance exits eastward.

While isolated instances of high winds in wind prone areas are
in the cards tonight, the threat for widespread, persistent high
winds appears too low to warrant any High Wind Warnings at this
time.

The forecast was updated to reflect current trends - mainly to
increase the probability for precipitation along the Rocky
Mountain Front and to increase winds in a few areas. No
significant changes otherwise. -AM

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 424 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

This afternoon there will be an upper-level ridge over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and mostly
dry conditions to the area this afternoon. Late this afternoon/early
this evening the upper-level ridge flattens and an upper-level
shortwave trough moves over the area. This combined with a
moderately strong surface pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across North-central Montana with the strongest winds
along the Rocky Mountain Front. Windy conditions will linger into
Monday morning. With the shortwave trough moving over the area it
will bring isolated snow showers to the mountains of North-central
Montana Sunday evening through Monday morning. It will also bring
isolated rain/snow showers to portions of the lower-elevations of
North-central Montana with the greatest coverage along the Hi-Line.
On Monday the upper-level shortwave trough remains over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana in the morning before an
upper-level ridge begins to build back in Monday afternoon. As a
result Monday will be the coolest day of this forecast period.
Monday evening to early Tuesday morning there will be another
round of light primarily mountain precipitation.

Tuesday through Friday the upper-level ridge will remain over North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow
temperatures to warm up each day through Thursday with mostly dry
weather. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of this
forecast period with high temperatures approaching or exceeding record
highs for many locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
the surface pressure gradient will increase which will bring
another round of windy conditions to the Rocky Mountain Front. On
Saturday the upper-level ridge flattens which cools temperatures
down slightly -IG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

For the winds tonight into Monday morning there is around a 30 - 70%
chance for wind gusts of 75 mph or greater in isolated locations
along the Rocky Mountain Front. There is up to a 40 - 60% chance for
wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the plains west of I-15  and
the wind prone areas of Judith Basin and Fergus County. As a result of
the low probabilities and isolated nature of where the higher wind
gusts are expected along the Rocky Mountain Front and low confidence in
a Mountain Wave bringing down the stronger gusts a High Wind Warning
was not issued at this time. This will continue to be monitored by
future shifts. For the winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning there
is a 50 - 70% chance for wind gusts of 55 mph or greater along the
Rocky Mountain Front.

On Wednesday and Thursday there is greater than a 80% chance for
high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater across much of North-
central Montana. On Wednesday there is a 30 - 50% chance for high
temperatures of 60 degrees or greater across the valleys of
Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday there is a 40 - 80% chance for
high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater from Shelby to Great
Falls to Lewistown. On Thursday there is greater than an 80% chance
for high temperatures of 60 degrees or greater in the valleys of
Southwestern Montana. On Thursday from Shelby to Great Falls to
Lewistown there is a 60 - 90% chance for high temperatures of 65
degrees or greater. On Thursday there is a 30 - 50% chance for high
temperatures of 65 degrees or greater in the valleys of Southwestern
Montana. On Thursday from Shelby to Great Falls to Lewistown there is a
30 - 60% chance for high temperatures of 70 degrees or greater. On
Friday across most of the lower-elevations of North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana there is greater than a 50% chance for high
temperatures of 60 degrees or greater. On Friday from Great Falls
to Lewistown along the Montana Highway 200/US Highway 87 Corridor
and across the Gallatin Valley there is greater than a 55% chance
for high temperatures of 65 degrees or greater. On Friday from
Great Falls to Lewistown along the Montana Highway 200/US Highway
87 Corridor there is a 30 - 50% chance for high temperatures of 70
degrees or greater. -IG

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF Period

Initial concern this TAF period will be for increasing winds/speeds,
mainly over the plains this evening. Mountain wave activity looks to
increase in tandem, greatest near the Rocky Mountain Front. Gusty
winds become more widespread and vary in direction a bit heading
through the day Monday.

Some spotty light rain and snow will be around over northern areas
tonight into early Monday, though confidence in occurrence was only
high enough to include mention in the KHVR TAF at this time.
Mountains will be obscured near precipitation. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  52  33  54 /  20  10  10  10
CTB  34  48  32  51 /  20  10  10  10
HLN  34  49  32  51 /  10   0  20  10
BZN  26  47  27  48 /  10   0  20  10
WYS   8  35  13  36 /  10   0  20  20
DLN  24  45  27  49 /  10   0  10  10
HVR  29  50  28  48 /  20  20  10  10
LWT  33  47  29  47 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls</pre>