883
FXUS65 KBYZ 030045
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
545 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance for a mix of rain/snow late tonight into Tuesday
  morning, highest probabilities 40 to 70% in the Pryor/Bighorn
  mountains and adjacent foothills/plains. There is a slight
  chance (10-20%) for a short period of freezing rain mixed in
  over portions of SE Montana (Miles City/Baker/Ekalaka) around
  sunrise.

- Mostly dry and very warm with periods of gusty winds along the
  western foothills through the next 7 days.

- Increased grass fire concerns across the area this week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast for the latest model trends through tomorrow.
Models continue to trend wetter with a shortwave crossing the area
late tonight into tomorrow morning. Temperature/Dew Point spreads
narrow considerably before midnight over northeast zones. Added a
mention of patchy fog to these areas until precipitation chances
increase just before sunrise.

Increased precipitation chances 10 to 20 percent across central
and eastern zones during this period to account for this trend.
Precipitation will be a mix of rain/snow with a slight chance for
a brief period of freezing rain mixed in over northeast zones from
Miles City to Baker and Ekalaka. At this point precipitation
chances in this wintry mixed precipitation area are 30 percent or
lower and the very short latency before temperatures warm up
turning precipitation to plain rain should keep impacts very low.
Area with the best chance for precipitation tonight will be the
north and east slopes of the Pryor and Bighorn mountains into the
adjacent plains. Precipitation chances in this area are in the 40
to 70 percent range. Snow levels drop to around 4500 feet with a
mix of rain/snow down to 3500 feet. Snow accumulations look to be
a dusting to an inch over the lower foothills, with up to 3 inches
in the Bighorn and Pryor mountains. Mid shift will keep an eye on
this and issue additional messaging if needed.

Tweaked winds up a bit over the western foothills
(Livingston/Nye) to account for stronger pressure gradient
overnight along and ahead of the approaching shortwave. Gusts in
the 40s to around 50 mph seem reasonable from late evening through
sunrise. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today through Sunday...

An upper shortwave continues to move out of eastern this
afternoon, leaving breezy conditions with winds gusting in the 30s
and 40s mph. These gusts will quickly decrease into the evening
for much of the area, with the exception being the foothills west
of Billings. A low chance of rain/snow showers remains forecast in
the far east near Baker through this afternoon, with minimal
accumulations.

Another shortwave will move through the region on Tuesday,
bringing widespread breezy winds with gusts in the 20s and 30s
mph, as well as a low to moderate chance for rain/snow showers.
There is a low chance for mixed precipitation in the far east,
mainly a rain/snow mix. Though warm temperatures and the breezy
conditions may inhibit the chance for a mixed precip type. The
best chance for accumulating precip will be in the mountains,
especially for northwest aspects where 1-3 inches are forecast
(greatest in the Bighorns). Additionally, winds will increase
along the foothills west of Billings into the 40s mph tonight and
into Tuesday morning.

Ridging continue to put the northern Rockies in a stranglehold,
with temperatures in the 50s to low 60s for much of the week.
Thursday continues to be forecast as the warmest day, with highs
in the mid to upper 60s. As mentioned in previous discussions,
there is strong consensus amongst most models and ensembles for
highs in the mid 60s. A few outlying members continue to depict
even warmer conditions though, with temperatures into the 70s.
Confidence remains low to moderate for temperatures approaching
70F on Thursday.

Due to the persistent dry, occasionally breezy, and very warm
conditions, there is an elevated risk for grass fires this week.
Be careful to not cause a spark.

There is a small glimmer of light beginning to show at the end of
the tunnel, with several ensembles holding onto a potential
pattern change next week. Confidence remains low at this time, but
for snow lovers I am saying there is a chance. Matos

.AVIATION...

00z Forecast Discussion...

Winds are diminishing with sunset and the development of a surface
inversion. By late this evening an approaching shortwave will
stir up the winds along the western foothills with gusts in the 25
to 40kt range west of Billings, strongest in the Livingston/Big
Timber/Nye vicinity. Further east the surface inversion should
hold surface winds down but LLWS probabilities increase with 30
to 40kts around 2kft AGL.

Patchy fog with local MVFR conditions is possible from around
midnight through sunrise, or when the shortwave trof arrives, for
areas east of Forsyth into the Dakotas. This includes
KMLS/KBHK/K1S3 terminals.

As the shortwave arrives precipitation chances increase along
with low cloud cover. Precipitation chances will be mainly east of
Billings and highest in the southern foothills around Sheridan
(KSHR). Precipitation will be mainly a mix of rain/snow, however a
slight chance (10-20%) of freezing rain is in the forecast over
northeast zones from Miles City to Baker for a few hours around
sunrise. Once the shortwave moves through temperatures will
quickly rise ending the wintry mixed precipitation chances. Local
MVFR to IFR conditions are possible near precipitation areas, with
the poorest conditions along the Pryor/Bighorn mountains and
adjacent foothills/plains. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/053 030/058 039/065 032/059 034/060 037/060 035/054
    22/R    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/W
LVM 035/049 031/057 035/061 034/060 033/056 035/055 032/048
    21/N    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    33/W
HDN 031/053 024/061 035/067 026/059 031/059 031/062 032/056
    44/R    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/B    23/W
MLS 029/048 024/054 036/062 026/053 030/053 030/057 032/051
    23/O    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
4BQ 031/047 025/055 038/064 030/057 032/055 030/059 032/053
    24/O    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    12/W
BHK 024/043 022/049 033/056 026/049 025/050 027/053 027/047
    03/O    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/B    00/B    11/B
SHR 026/047 024/057 033/065 029/060 030/058 030/060 029/051
    45/O    00/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/B    23/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings